London, 12 April 1888 

Dear Bebel, 

Since you wrote on 8 March, I have been taking a bit of a look at 
events; things now seem to be settling down sufficiently for one to size 
them up. Your policy of saying that nothing has changed is, when 
applied to the masses, tactically quite correct; but in my view it by no 
means does justice to the historical situation. 

4 gossip — > (fig.) a godforsaken hole 

Fritz’s proclamations”*! show him to be of exceedingly mediocre 
intellect. Anyone who, after so many years as Crown Prince, can find 
nothing better to put forward than the elimination of this or that petty 
tax and, on the military side, the abolition of the third rank, which is 
quite pointless because long since abolished in a fighting formation, is 
unlikely to change the face of the world. The plaint about the evils of an 
inadequate education is apt to be the monopoly of the inadequately 
educated—as in this instance. So much for his intellect. 

In assessing his character one must—because of the state of his 
health—proceed with the utmost caution. If a man is in constant danger 
of having his throat slit by his doctors,* he may be excused from bestir- 
ring himself unduly; this would only be appropriate were his health to 
improve. Hence it is understandable that in internal affairs Bismarck and 
Puttkamer should have a freer hand than ever before. 

But that is not to imply that nothing has changed. In William? the 
building has lost its keystone and the fact that it is tottering is plainly 
manifest. Their internal policy betrays how desperately Bismarck and 
Co. are clinging to their positions. Nor is yours unchanged; it has dete- 
riorated precisely because Bismarck wishes to demonstrate that nothing 
has changed. The ostentatious exclusion of the Social Democrats from 
the amnesty, the mass scale of house searches and persecution, the 
desperate efforts to kill off the Sozialdemokrat in Switzerland*!—all this 
proves that Bismarck & Co. feel the ground quaking under their feet, as 
do the efforts of the supporters of the Kartell? to make Fritz realise 
what a monarch is. 

In true monarchical fashion they give way over all political questions, 
yet it’s a court intrigue which brings the conflict to light. The thing’s 
absolutely farcical—according to Bismarck, the Tsar has the right to 
forbid Battenberg’s marriage, while according to Fritz and Victoria, in 
their particular case, all the profound and inscrutable political axioms 
whereby they have been guided throughout their lives are suddenly to 
be abolished!?% 

Being in such a parlous state, Fritz will doubtless be forced to give 
way here again—unless he gets better and can really weather a minis- 
terial crisis. It is not at all in our interests that Bismarck should sulkily 
withdraw, only to return in triumph 4 weeks later, the idol of your 
coalitionist philistine. We should be more than satisfied if the said 

* Frederick III had larynx cancer — > William I - ° Alexander III 

coalitionist philistine were to lose all faith in the stability of Bismarck’s 
regime. Nor will that stability be restored in Fritz’s lifetime. 

Since absolutely nothing more is being divulged about the nature of 
the disease—not even Waldeyer’s report which, if favourable, would 
certainly have been made public—there can be no doubt that it’s a case 
of cancer. And here again our men of Progress** are showing what stuff 
they are made of. Virchow who, if only in his capacity as a medical man, 
and one who has already been consulted, ought now to be on the spot, 
is digging for antiquities in Egypt! No doubt he wishes to be called in 
officially! 

There can be no empire without an empereur, no Bonapartism with- 
out a Bonaparte. The system is tailored to the man, stands or falls with 
him. Like the old Slav idol of Pomerania, Triglav, our Bonaparte had 
three heads; the middle one has been cut off and, of the other two, 
Moltke is already past his prime and Bismarck tottering. He won’t get 
the better of Victoria, she having learnt from her mother* how to deal 
with ministers, even all-powerful ones. The old security is gone. The 
insecurity of the foundations will also become apparent in their policy; 
blunders abroad, at home recurrent coups de main. And it will become 
apparent in your philistine’s loss of faith in his own idol, in the dwin- 
dling energy and zeal of civil servants, their minds bent on the possibil- 
ity of change and consequently of a changed future for themselves. All 
this if, as seems probable, Bismarck stays where he is. But should Fritz 
get better and Bismarck’s position become seriously endangered, then, 
so Lenchen maintains, they’ll take a pot shot at Fritz. This might in fact 
actually happen, should Puttkamer and his Ihrings and Naporras be 
endangered. 

So whatever happens there’ll be an interregnum, with Bismarck 
yearning for the exit of Fritz and the entry of the other William. In that 
case, however, things won’t be at all the same as they used to be. In that 
case there’ll be bedlam. Our Bonapartism has now just about reached its 
Mexican period. When that comes, so will our 1866, followed shortly by 
1870; i.e. it will come from within, a domestic Sedan.**’ Well, let it! 

In France things are taking a perfectly logical course—the right-wing 
Republicans are being forced into an alliance with the Monarchists and 
are foundering as a result, and possible governments have to be formed 
ever further to the left. Boulanger is obviously a political nitwit and will 

@ Queen Victoria — > William II 

176 Letters ~ 1888 

probably soon come to grief in the Chamber. Your French provincial 
philistine has but one article of faith—the indispensability of the 
Republic, since Monarchy spells civil war and war abroad. 

Shall send receipt for Mrs Pfander’s 100 marks in my next; I forgot to 
get it from her. Meanwhile many thanks for the donation. I shall do what 
I can to support the woman, but shall take the liberty of approaching 
you people again. 

Kindest regards to your wife and daughter, and to Singer. 

Your 
FE.