[IN PLAUEN NEAR DRESDEN] 

London, 23 and 25 October 1886, Saturday 

Dear Bebel, 

The Soztaldemokrat containing your statement? arrived just 
now, at 9.30 p.m., and I am hastening to write to you although my 
letter cannot go off until 5.30 on Monday, when I shall have it regis- 
tered. But on Monday, I may again have a whole lot of proofs* re- 
quiring my immediate attention. 

Your statement is so worded that no exception whatever can be 
taken to it assuming the necessity of such a step. As to this, I cannot 
rightly judge but, even in the absence of Freytag’s opinion, it would 
seem to me justified. From the viewpoint both of the cause in general 
and of the newspaper in particular, it was, to my mind, most fortun- 
ate that the verdict enabled you to take this step in a seemly way. To 
have conferred an official character on the paper in the first place 
was, in my view, a great mistake, and so, indeed, it has proved to be 
in the Reichstag and elsewhere; but once it had been done, you could 
hardly go back on it without appearing to disown the paper and beat 
a retreat. The verdict gave you an opportunity of going back on it 
without producing that impression and you did right in making use of 
it. Nor, as Liebknecht saw it, was there any question of beating a re- 
treat, and the paper will now be able to express the views of the great 
bulk of the party far more freely and with far less regard for the gen- 
tlemen of the right wing. 

The Neue Zeit has not yet arrived.? I too take the view that 
Bismarck has got far more involved with the Russians than he need have 
done on France’s account, and for this the main reason — besides 
those adduced by you, and overshadowing them all—is his having 
been told by the Russians what he knows to be true, namely: “Either 
we must have decisive and resounding victories on the road to 
Constantinople, or else— we shall have revolution. Without making sac- 
rifices, neither Alexander III nor yet the Russian diplomats can exor- 

* of the English translation of the first volume of Capital (see Note 56) 

cise the Pan-Slav and chauvinist spirit they have conjured up, for oth- 
erwise Alexander III will be bumped off by the generals and then, 
whether they like it or not, theyll get a national assembly. And 
a Russian revolution is what Bismarck fears above all else. The col- 
lapse of Russian tsarism would entail that of the Prusso-Bismarckian 
economy. And hence everything possible must be done to postpone 
the crash, despite Austria, despite the indignation of the middle 
classes in Germany, and despite Bismarck’s knowledge that, either 
way, he will eventually undermine his system — which, after all, de- 
pends on German hegemony in Europe— and that, on the day old 
William * dies, both Russia and France will rattle their sabres in quite 
different fashion. 

The worst of it is that, given the rascality of those in power, no one 
can say how, in case of war, the belligerents will assort themselves, 
who will side with, and who against whom. That the eventual outcome 
will be revolution is plain, but at the cost of what sacrifices, of what 
general prostration-— and after who knows how many changes. 

In the meanwhile there’ll be a respite until the spring, and during 
that time much can happen. In Russia the fun might begin without 
more ado, old William might kick the bucket and Germany change 
its policy, the Turks (having been deprived of Bosnia by Austria and 
of Egypt by Britain, they will, of course, now regard these their 
former allies merely as traitors) may again get out of the Russian fur- 
row, etc. 

Your opinion of the German bourgeoisie cannot be worse than 
mine. But it remains to be seen whether historical circumstances 
won't compel them actively to intervene willy-nilly, just like their 
French counterparts. The latter’s performance is wretched enough 
and that of our lot would be even worse, but all the same they’d be 
forced to take a hand in their own history again. At the time, I read 
Berger’s pronouncement with some pleasure, but as you say it’s ap- 
plicable only to Bismarck’s lifetime. That it’s their intention to drop 
their own ‘liberal’ slogans for good, I do not for a moment doubt. *** 
It remains to be seen whether they can do so once they no longer have 
a Bismarck to rule for them and find themselves face to face with 
nothing but imbecile squireens and dim-witted bureaucrats — people 
of their own moral calibre. For come war or peace, Germany’s he- 
gemony has, during the past few months, gone for a burton and she has 

* Wilham I 

again become the humble servant of Russia. And it was only the 
chauvinist satisfaction of being the arbiter of Europe that held the 
whole bag of tricks together. Fear of the proletariat will certainly help 
things along. And if these chaps gain admittance to the government, 
they will certainly start off by adopting the very attitude you de- 
scribe, but will soon be forced to change their tune. I would go still 
further and say that even were the spell to be broken by the Old 
Man’s death and the same people to remain at the helm as now, they 
would either be forced to resign as a result of renewed clashes— not 
only with the Court— or have to act in accordance with bourgeois 
views. Not at once, of course, but very soon. Political stagnation such 
as now obtains in Germany — a genuine Second Empire— can only 
be a transitory and exceptional state of affairs; large-scale industry 
will not allow its laws to be dictated by the cowardice of industrialists. 
Economic development will give rise to repeated clashes, each 
more severe than the last, nor will it suffer itself to be governed 
for any length of time by semi-feudal Junkers with feudal procliv- 
ities. 

Come to that, there is also the possibility that in the spring 
they will all gird up their loins for war and, armed to the teeth, con- 
front one another, each fearing to begin, until one of them puts for- 
ward a solution involving mutual compromise and the swallowing 
up of small states, whereupon they'll all grab their share. Vhat Bis- 
marck is presently adumbrating such an expedient seems probable 
enough. 

25 October 

Your remarks about Liebknecht’s speeches presumably relate 
mainly to what he told the correspondent of the New Yorker Volkszeit- 
ung (little Cuno); this shouldn’t be taken too literally — since inter- 
viewers always distort things. I agree that his other remarks about the 
Kulturkampf? are somewhat misguided, but as you know, 
Liebknecht is very dependent on atmosphere and tends to chan- 
ce his hand with his audiences (not always successfully), while he ne- 
ver has more than two colours— black and white — on his palette. 
Not that very much harm will have been done, since it will all have 
been long since forgotten in America. 

Goodbye, then, and mind you keep fit and send us occasional news 
of yourself during your imprisonment. °°? I hardly imagine that you 

will have to stay there for the full term, and in 9 months’ time every- 
thing may have changed. 

Your 
F.E.