London, 22 December 1882 

Dear Bebel, 

I hope you will be set free the day after tomorrow for 24 hours 
and thus have no difficulty in getting hold of this note. 

All that was meant by the bit you found mystifying in my last let- 
ter‘ was that I expected the repeal of the Exceptional Law to be 
brought about by events either of a revolutionary nature themselves 
(e.g. a fresh coup or the convocation of a national assembly in Rus- 
sia, whose repercussions on Germany would at once become 
apparent), or those which at any rate would give impetus to the 
movement and pave the way for revolution (change of monarch in 

* A. Thierry, Histotre de la conquéte de U Angleterre par les Normands, de ses causes, et de ses 
Suites jusqu’a nos jours, en Angleterre, en Ecosse, en Irlande et sur le continent, vols I-III, Paris, 
1825.-° superior strength -° See this volume, p. 349. 

Berlin, death or resignation of Bismarck), either of which would al- 
most inevitably usher in a ‘new era’.*7? 

The crisis in America would seem to me, like the one over here and 
like the pressure on German industry that has not yet lifted every- 
where, to be not a crisis proper, but the after-effect of overproduction 
dating back to the previous crisis. On the last occasion the crash in 
Germany came prematurely because of the milliard racket, whereas 
here and in America it came at the proper time, in 1877. But never, 
during a period of prosperity, had the productive forces been so ex- 
panded as in the years between 1871 and 1877, hence, as in 1837-42, 
the chronic pressure here* and in Germany on the main branches of 
industry, especially cotton and iron; the markets are still not able to 
absorb all those products. Since American industry is, in the main, 
still working for the protected home market, a local interim crisis may 
very easily arise there, in consequence of the rapid increase in produc- 
tion, but ultimately it will only serve to hasten the tme when Amer- 
ica becomes capable of exporting and of entering the world market 
as England’s most dangerous competitor. Hence I do not believe — 
and Marx shares my view’ — that the real crisis will come very much 
before it is due. 

I would consider a European war to be a disaster; this time it 
would prove frightfully serious and inflame chauvinism everywhere 
for years to come, since all peoples would be fighting for their own 
existence. All the work done by the Russian revolutionaries, who are 
on the eve of victory, would be ruined and set at nought; our party in 
Germany, temporarily overwhelmed by the tide of chauvinism, 
would be dispersed, while exactly the same would happen in France. 
The only good thing that might come of it would be the setting-up of 
a Little Poland—which would also and automatically ensue from 
revolution; a Russian constitution resulting from a disastrous war 
would have an import, probably of a conservative nature, quite differ- 
ent from one forcibly imposed by revolutionary means. Such a war 
would, I believe, retard the revolution by 10 years, at the end of 
which, however, the upheaval would doubtless be all the more dras- 
tic. Incidentally, there has again been a prospect of war. Bismarck 
has been flaunting the Austrian alliance just as he did the South 
German alliances at the time of the Luxembourg affair in 1867.*°! 
Whether anything will come of this in the spring remains to be seen. 

* in England -” See this volume, p. 392. 

We found your reports on the state of German industry most inter- 
esting, in particular the express confirmation that the cartel agree- 
ment between the ironmasters had collapsed. It could not possibly 
last, least of all between German industrialists for whom the pettiest 
fraudulence is the very breath of life. 

We haven’t as yet seen the things by Meyer #8? and what you say is 
therefore news to us. That Marx would figure alongside his cardinals 
was only to be expected; Meyer always derived quite exceptional 
pleasure from proceeding direct from Cardinal Manning to Marx, 
nor did he ever fail to mention the fact. 

In his Sociale Briefe Rodbertus was hot on the scent of surplus 
value, but that was as close as he got. Otherwise it would have put 
paid to his thoughts and endeavours as to how best to help the 
debt-ridden country Junkers, something the good man surely could 
not have wished. But as you say, he is worth infinitely more than the 
majority of German vulgar economists, including the armchair social- 
ists? who after all live solely off our leavings. 

The story of Carlchen’s* wooing was also new to us. The wedding, 
or so I have been told by eye-witnesses, was a most mournful affair, so 
much so that someone who was present at the civil ceremony ex- 
claimed: ‘C'est V’enterrement de A!” 

Yesterday I sent off to Zurich the final ms. for the pamphlet, 
namely an appendix on the constitution of the Mark and a short 
history of the German peasantry generally.? Since Maurer 
writes very badly and confuses many things, it is difficult to track 
down what you want at the first reading. As soon as I get the proofs 
I shall send you the thing, which contains, not simply abstracts from 
Maurer, but indirect criticism of him, as also much else that is new. 
These are the first-fruits of long years of study devoted to German 
history, and I am delighted at being able to present it first of all 
to the workers rather than to schoolmasters and other ‘eddicated’ 
gents. 

Now I must stop, for otherwise I shall not be able to register the let- 
ter in time to catch the evening post. The Prussians would not as yet 
seem to have reached the stage of Stiebering* registered letters, all of 
which have so far arrived in proper condition. I have by long practice 
acquired a pretty shrewd eye for such things. 

@ Carl Hirsch-? It’s a rattling good funeral!-‘ from Stieber, chief of the Prussian 
police 

I should be glad if your wife* would kindly accept the enclosed 
Christmas card and the compliments of the season. 

Your 
F. E.