[Manchester,] 31 May 1873 
25 Dover Street 

Dear FRep, 

Have just received your letter which edified me _ greatly. 
However, I shall venture no judgment until I have had time to 
reflect on the matter and consult the ‘authorities’.* 

I have been telling Moore about a problem with which I have 
been racking my brains for some time now. However, he thinks it 
is insoluble, at least pro tempore, because of the many factors 
involved, factors which for the most part have yet to be 
discovered. The problem is this: you know about those graphs in 
which the movements of prices, discount rates, etc., etc., over the 
year, etc., are shown in rising and falling zigzags. I have variously 
attempted to analyse crises by calculating these ups and downs as 
irregular curves and I believed (and still believe it would be 
possible if the material were sufficiently studied) that I might be 
able to determine mathematically the principal laws governing 
crises. As I said, Moore thinks it cannot be done at present and I 
have resolved to give it Up FOR THE TIME BEING. 

The French catastrophe” was welcome in so far as it involved 
disgrace for Thiers and his lickspittles; but unwelcome since, if it 
had gone the other way, I might have hoped to see various 
individuals removed from London soon. Moreover, I regard any 
violent catastrophe now as untimely both from the viewpoint of the 
interests of France and from our own. 

Nevertheless, I am by no means convinced that the événement” 

a Carl Schorlemmer and Samuel Moore - © event 

will result in a restoration. The Ruraux*’* had undoubtedly 
reckoned with some sort of revolt in Paris, Lyons and Marseilles, 
and especially in Paris. In that event they would have come down 
hard, some of the radical Left would have been arrested, etc., in 
short it would have led to a situation which d’une maniére ou d’une 
autre’ would have had to end in a restoration, and quickly at that. 
Bonaparte himself, in his attempt to carry out his coup d’état, i.e. 
to bring it to a conclusion, found himself paralysed the very first 
day by the merely passive resistance of the Parisians, and he knew 
full well that if that were to last another 6-8 days the coup would 
be lost and lost irretrievably. Hence the signal to go ahead with 
gruesome murders in the boulevards, etc., sans provocation aucune,” 
to improvise a terreur.© Mr Morny in particular, the real Manacer, 
has since spoken very candidly about this planned operation, 
whose author he had been. 

For that, however, the Rurals lacked the puck; and they could 
only have had it if they had had one pretender instead of three. 
Their hope was rather the opposite one: that events would force 
them to stop acting like Buridan’s ass.° 

Now that they find themselves, in contrast, in a_ purely 
parliamentary situation, the row is flaring up again in their own 
ranks. Each hopes to gain the support of as much of the nearest 
faction, say, FOR INSTANCE, THE LEFT CENTRE, aS would be necessary to 
enable him to dispense with his rivals. However, as far as 
MacMahon is concerned, in my judgment, the worthy fellow will 
never take any action on his own initiative. There is also another 
factor that must hasten the dissolution of this amalgam. The only 
thing that formally binds them together is God, i.e. Catholicism. 
The more impetuous and ‘honest’ people on the Right will 
absolutely insist that the Ministry should show its colours to the 
Pope‘ and Spain,°” and it seems to me that, quite apart from any 
inner reluctance to do so, the need to consider Mr Bismarck’s 
feelings must prevent any step in that direction. However, the 
Jesuit fathers who have actually directed the entire strategy of the 
Rurals up to now, including, i.a., that old bag, MacMahon’s wife,* 
will not let themselves be fobbed off so simply. In such a situation 
the National Assembly might easily witness just such a_ swift 
changement de décoration' as took place recently. After all, it was 

a in one way or another - > without any provocation - © This refers to the actions of 
the instigators of the Bonapartist coup d’état in France on 2 December 1851. - 
¢ Pius IX - © Elisabette Charlotte - f change of sets 

only the smrtinc of 9 votes that made the homme nécessaire* 
impossible, a thing which, incidentally, disproves Hegel’s view that 
necessity entails possibility.” 

The day before yesterday I went to see Dronke in Southport. 
He has become exceedingly fat, which does not suit him. While 
there I saw par accident Strauss’ book Der neue und der alte Glaube, 
loaned to him by a German philistine. I leafed through it, and it 
really is proof of the great weakness of the Volksstaat that no one 
there has put this damned priest and Bismarck-worshipper (who 
gives himself such airs vis-a-vis socialism) in his proper place. 

This afternoon I am going to Buxton with Moore, so that I shall 
be out of the way until Monday.° As soon as I have seen Gumpert, 
I shall return. Just lazing-around and idling has done me a world 
of good. 

Enclosed a letter from Tussy. In the letter the child received 
from me" I said to her that her last letter had greatly reassured 
me, etc.; her reproach that I was unjust towards Lissagaray was 
unfounded. I asked nothing of him but that he should provide 
proof instead of words that he was better than his reputation and 
that there was some good reason to rely on him. You can see from 
the reply how the homme fort’ proceeds. The damned nuisance is 
that I must be very circumspect and indulgent because of the 
child. I shall not answer until I have consulted you on my return. 
Keep the letter by you. 

Schorlemmer has just arrived. He cannot accompany Moore and 
me because Roscoe is unwell and this is the period for preparing 
for exams. 

Schorlemmer read you letter‘ and says that he is essentially in 
agreement with you but reserves his judgment on points of detail. 
My compliments TO Mrs Lizzy. 

Your 
K. M.