[QA: garble stripped 2026-06-23]

Manchester, 10 December 1851 

Dear Marx, 

What are the great men doing in this eventful crisis? It is said that 
L. Blanc has been arrested in France, but this cannot alas be true; 
nous connaissons notre petit bonhomme.’ By the way, since nothing has 

4 a character in Heine’s ‘Zwei Ritter’, here Louis Bonaparte - > the apostles of the 
democratic trinity, of liberty, equality, fraternity. The poor chaps! -¢ of no 
account - 4 we know our little fellow 

come of the Paris insurrection,” I’m glad that the first storm is 
over. On such occasions, tout blasé qu’on est,” one is always to some 
extent gripped by the old political fever and one always has some 
personal interest in the upshot of such a business. Now I can at 
least resume my ethnological study '*? upon which I was engaged 
at the onset of this great coup. 

By the way, in spite of all this there’s no sign of a return of 
confiance, either here or in Liverpool, and P. Ermen alone is as 
cocksure and as faithful to Napoleon as 4 days ago he was pejecTen 
and cnapratten. By and large the bourgeois here are too shrewd to 
regard this Napoleonic farce as anything other than ephemeral. 
But what is to come of the whole dirty business? Napoleon will be 
elected, no question of that, the bourgeoisie has no choice, and 
who is to verify the ballot-papers? To make a wrong count in 
favour of the adventurer is too much of a temptation, and the full 
measure of the French property-owning class’s turpitude, its 
servile abjection in the face of the slightest success, its habit of 
crawling before a pouvoir quelconque, have this time come more 
splendidly to light than ever before. But how does the jackass 
propose to rule? He will receive fewer votes than in 1848, c’est 
clair; perhaps 3 to 3'/, million in all; that is already a dangerous 
setback so far as credit is concerned. Any financial and taxation 
reform is impossible 1. because of shortage of money, 2. because it 
can only be effected by a military dictator who wages successful 
wars abroad, ow la guerre patie la guerre,” whereas in peacetime any 
surplus, and a great deal more besides, inevitably finds its way into 
the pockets of the army, 3. because Napoleon is too stupid. What 
remains for him? La guerre?’ Against whom, against England 
perhaps? Or simple military despotism, which in peacetime must 
necessarily lead to a fresh military revolution and call into being 
the parties of the National Assembly within the army itself? Here 
there is no way out, the farce is bound to collapse. And what if a 
trade crisis comes! 

That Louis Napoleon has something ‘big’ up his sleeve, I do not 
for a moment doubt. But I shall be curious to see what sort of 
foolishness it will be. The developpement of the Napoleonic ideas 
will fly exceeding high and come a cropper over the most ordinary 
obstacles. 

What emerges pretty clearly from the whole transaction is that 

« however blase one may be - > confidence - © any kind of power - 4 that’s 
clear -¢ where war pays for war -f War? -8 An allusion to Louis Napoleon 
Bonaparte’s Des idées napoléoniennes. 

the reds* have abdicated, completely abdicated. To attempt to 
vindicate them now for not having defended themselves en masse 
would be nonsensical. The next few months will show whether 
prostration in France is such that several years’ peace and quiet 
will be needed before the reds are capable of another ’48. But 
where, on the other hand, is that peace and quiet to come from? 

I see only 2 ways out of this beastly mess: 

Either the factions of the party of order, as reflected in the 
army, now take the place of the ‘anarchists’, i.e. bring about such a 
state of anarchy that ultimately the reds and Ledru-Rollin will 
appear as saviours just as now Louis Napoleon; or Louis Napoleon 
abolishes the tax on drinks and lets himself be inveigled into 
introducing one or two bourgeois reforms—though where the 
money and power are to come from is hard to say. In this highly 
unlikely event he might be able to maintain his position. 

Quien penses-tu?” 

Your 
[QA: garble stripped 2026-06-23]