Friedrich Engels
Letter from France M

Signs of the times—The anticipated revolution

The Democratic Review.
Marz 1850

 Letter from France.

(From our own Correspondent.)
Signs of the Times—the Anticipated Revolution.

Paris, February 19th, 1850.

I must limit this letter somewhat in space, but the facts which have occurred
in the course of this month are so striking, that they will speak for themselves.
The revolution is advancing so rapidly, that every one must see its approach.
In all spheres of society it is spoken of as imminent; and all foreign papers,
even if opposed to democracy, declare it an unavoidable thing. Nay, more,

you may with almost certainty foresee, that if no unexpected events give a
turn to public affairs, the great contest between the united ordermongers and
the vast majority of the people, can hardly be postponed beyond the latter
end of this spring. And what the result of that contest will be, is a matter
admitting of no doubt. The people of Paris are so sure of having very shortly

the most splendid case for a revolution they ever had, that there is a general
order amongst them—"Avoid all petty squabbles, submit to anything which
puts not a vital question to you." Thus, with all their efforts, the other day,
when the trees of liberty were cut down, the government could not excite
the working people to even a petty street-row, and the individuals dancing

round the tree at the Porte Saint-Martin, which your London Illustrated
News depicted in such a terrific manner, consisted of a set of police spies
who lost all their day's job through the coolness of the people. Thus, in spite
of what the government papers say to the contrary, the 24th of this month
will pass off very quietly. The government would give almost anything if they

could have a row in Paris, with some fictitious conspiracies and outbreaks

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Letter from France I

in the Departments, in order to inflict the state of siege upon the capital and
those departments which, on the 10th of March, will have to elect new
deputies in lieu of the condemned of Versailles. A word on the new system
of military despotism. To keep the provinces in bondage, the government
have invented the new system of commanders-in-chief. They have united
a number of the seventeen military divisions of France into four grand
districts, each of which is to be under the command of one | general,
who, thus, has almost the arbitrary power of an eastern satrap or aRoman
proconsul. These four military districts are so arranged, that they surround
Paris and the whole centre of France, as it were, with an iron circle, in order
to keep it down. This measure, illegal as it is, has however been adopted not
only on account of the people, but on account of the Bourgeois opposition
too. The Legitimist and Orleanist parties now see clear enough that Louis
Napoleon is serving them very badly. They wanted him as a means to the
re-establishment of monarchy, as an instrument to be shuffled aside when
worn out, and they now see him aspiring to a throne for himself, and going
a good deal faster than they want. They know well enough that at this moment
there is no chance for monarchy, and that they must wait; and yet Louis
Napoleon does everything in his power to come to a settlement, and to risk
a revolution which may cost him his head, rather than wait his time. They
know, too, that neither party, Legitimist or Orleanist, has gained so much
ground upon the other as to make the victory of one ofthetwo an undeniable
necessity; and as before the 10th of December, 1848, they want another
neutral man, who, while they await the course of events, may govern according to the common interests of both. Thus, these two parties, the only
important fractions of the ordermpngers, are now against the prolongation
of Louis Napoleon's presidency, although four months ago they would have
done anything to carry it; they are again, for once, for the neutral ground
of the republic, with General Changarnier as president. Changarnier seems
to be in the plot; and Napoleon, who does not trust him but dares not dismiss
him from his proconsulate at Paris, has put the four military districts as a
fetter around him. This may explain why M. Pascal Duprat's (a traitor of June
'48, who now courts popularity again) speech against the new military system
and against Louis Napoleon himself, was very tolerantly listened to by the
majority. There occurred two curious incidents on this occasion. When
M. Duprat said, according to a newspaper, Louis Napoleon had to choose
between the position of his uncle, or that of Washington, a voice from the
left shouted, "or that of the Emperor Soulouque of Hayti!" A general burst
of laughter hailed this comparison of the French would-be-emperor to a
personage, than whom none offers more matter for ridicule to all the Charivaris of Paris; and yet not even the President of the Assembly interposed.

Friedrich Engels

You see what even this precious majority thinks of Louis Napoleon! The
Minister of War then got up, and, turning to the left, concluded a most violent
speech with these words: "And now, gentlemen, if you like to commence we
are ready!" This expression of the Minister will show you more than anything, how generally a violent struggle is expected.

In the meantime, the Social-Democratic party are actively preparing for
the elections. Although there is a chance for the "honest and moderate," to
elect one or two of their candidates in Paris, where some sixty thousand
working men have been, under a variety of pretexts, struck off the voting
register; yet there is no doubt that the socialists will have a signal triumph
in the departments. The government themselves are expecting it. They
therefore have prepared a measure for doing away with what is now openly
called the conspiracy of "Universal Suffrage." They intend to make the
suffrage indirect; the voters to elect a limited number of electors, who again
name the representative. In this the government are sure of the support of
the majority. But as this amounts to an open overthrow of the constitution,
which cannot be revised before 1851, and by an assembly elected for the
purpose, they expect violent resistance on the part of the people. These, |
) 3971 therefore, are to be intimidated by the foreign armies making their
appearance on the Rhine at the time this measure is brought into the House.
If this really comes to pass—and Louis Napoleon seems foolish enough to
risk such a thing—then you may expect to hear something like the thunder
of arevolution. And then, the Lord have mercy upon the souls of all Napoleons, Changarniers, and Ordermongers!|

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