THE SITUATION 2’ 

London, 12 October 1885 

..I cannot see that the 4 October was a defeat, unless you have 
been prey to all sorts of illusions. It was a matter of crushing the 
opportunists °°; they have been crushed. But in order to crush 
them pressure from two opposing sides was needed, from the 
right and from the left. That the pressure from the right was 
stronger than one might have thought is obvious. But that makes 
the situation much more revolutionary. 

Rather than Orleanists and Bonapartists in disguise, the 
bourgeois, both big and small, opted for Orleanists and Bona- 
partists who were open about it; rather than men who seek to get 
rich at the expense of the nation they opted for those who have 
already become rich by robbing it; rather than the conservatives of 
tomorrow, the conservatives of yesterday. That is all. 

Monarchy is impossible in France, if only because of the 
multitude of pretenders. If it were possible, it would be a sign that 
the Bismarckians are right to speak of the degeneration of France. 
But this degeneration affects only the bourgeoisie, in Germany 
and in England as well as in France. 

The Republic still remains the government which divides the 
three monarchist sects*°”’ the least, permitting them to unite as a 
conservative party. The moment the possibility of a monarchist 
restoration becomes a matter for discussion, the conservative party 
splits up into three sects; whereas the republicans will be forced to 
group around the only government possible; and, at the moment, 
it is probably the Clemenceau administration. 

Clemenceau is still an advance on Ferry and Wilson. It is most 
important that he comes to power, not as the bulwark of property 
against the communists, but as the saviour of the Republic against 

the monarchy. In this case he will be more or less forced to keep 
his promises; otherwise he would be behaving like the others who 
thought, like Louis Philippe, that they were “the best of the 
republics” *”°: we are in power, the Republic can sleep peacefully; 
our takeover of the ministries is enough, so do not speak to us any 
more of the promised reforms. 

I believe that the men who voted for the monarchists on the 4th 
are already frightened by their own success and that the 18th will 
yield results that are more or less in favour of Clemenceau’s 
supporters,” with some success, not of esteem but of scorn, for 
the opportunists. The philistine will say to himself: “After all, with 
so many Royalists and Bonapartists, I need a few opportunists.” 
Anyway, the 18th will decide the situation; France is the country 
of the unexpected, and I am wary of expressing a definitive 
opinion. 

But, come what may, there will be radicals and monarchists 
present. The Republic will run the necessary danger in order to 
force the petty bourgeois to lean a little more to the extreme left, 
which he would never have done otherwise. It is precisely the 
situation we communists need. Up till now, I see no reason to believe 
that there has been any deviation in the exceptionally logical 
course of political development in France: it is still the logic of 
1792-94; only the danger which was caused by the coalition then, 
is today caused by the coalition of monarchist parties at home. If 
one examines ‘it closely, it is less dangerous than the other one 
was... 

F. Engels