Manchester, 22 July 1870 

Dear Moor, 

Three cheers for Kugelmann! It is obvious that he did not go to 
school for nothing. His hypothesis is very much in the spirit of the 
protagonists and explains everything.* If it is correct in actual fact, 
then Bismarck at least has bitten off more than he can chew. 
Those worthies have obviously managed to set off a full-scale 
national war in Germany. The numerous tatonnements’ with 
regard to the cession of German territory, Luxembourg, etc., by 
which means Louis Bonaparte tried, as usual, to accustom the 
public in advance to the approaching fait accompli, have had quite 
the opposite effect on ordinary Germans. They have obviously 
made up their minds this time to put a stop to all such tricks once 
and for all. This being so, and considering the attitude of the two 
armies and of stubborn old William,° a pretend-war is not possible. 
On ira au fond“ 

The sudden vacillation and uncertainty evident in the French 
operations—obviously planned for the middle of this week—is 
proof that Louis Bonaparte realises how badly he has miscalcu- 
lated. The swift intervention of the South Germans and then the 
certainty that he will have the whole German people on his hands 
has frustrated the attempt to launch a surprise attack on Mainz 
with his artillery and then to form a spearhead in the direction of 
Wurzburg, with no more than half his forces mobilised. If he can now 
attack at all, he will have to deploy all his forces. But there’s still 
time for that. The order to form the fourth regimental battalions 
did not go out before the 15th or 16th. Their units consist of four 
companies of the three field battalions of each regiment, so they 
must first be increased to 6-8 companies and supplemented by 
reserves. The men on leave were called up in Paris on the 19th and 
20th, the trained reserves on 21 and 22 July, and the untrained 
reserves receive their papers tomorrow. The regiments will not be 
complete until the first two categories have joined them. And this 

a See previous letter. - © feelers - © William I - 4 It will be fought to the bitter end. 

means that—skirmishes apart—the campaign will have to be 
delayed to the middle of next week at the earliest. By then, 
however, the Germans may be so strong that Bonaparte will find it 
necessary to await the fourth battalions, and that means a delay of 
another 8-14 days. And by then he'll be foutu* 

Yesterday I was told by a local German philistine that he had 
been travelling on a train in Westphalia last Saturday with a 
Prussian general who had taken him for an Englishman and had 
spoken to him in English. He said: *‘It is true enough, we are 
about ten days behindhand, but if during ten days you do not 
hear that we have suffered a great defeat, we shall soon have your 
sympathies.’* On being asked what he meant, he said: *“The 
sympathies of the English, you know, are always on the side of 
success,’ * 

Mobilisation began on the 16th in Northern Germany and on 
the 17th in Bavaria. The reserves and Landwehr"! infantry can be 
at the ready in about 8 days and the rest will be available about 
13 days from the start of mobilisation. That means that the entire 
infantry will be ready on the 25th and everything else on the 30th. 
But since the reserves are joining up in great numbers without 
being ordered to, the field army will be ready even sooner. It is 
certain that the 7th, 8th, 11th and 12th army corps are standing 
on the Rhine. The Guard has also left Berlin, as I hear from 
Borchardt who arrived from there yesterday. I suppose it is on its 
way to Bavaria to serve under the handsome Crown Prince.” The 
transport of troops from the East through Berlin was due to begin 
yesterday. From Sunday or Monday on Bonaparte will be able to 
occupy the Palatinate at the most, but he will no longer be able to 
cross the Rhine unless the other side makes crass errors. From the 
end of next week the Germans can attack and start an army 
rolling towards France that will smash everything Bonaparte can 
put in its way, albeit after fierce battles. As things stand at present, 
I do not believe that the campaign can possibly end well for 
Bonaparte. 

I suppose I would like to write 2 articles weekly on the war for 
The Pall Mall Gazette for good cash payment.’” I shall do a trial 
piece on military organisation. 3-4 guineas per article ought to be 
right; the Guardian‘ used to pay me 2 guineas and would have 
paid even more.” If you can arrange that tomorrow, let me know 
right away. To go to the Prussian headquarters as a correspondent 

a finished - © Frederick William - © The Manchester Guardian 

has all sorts of drawbacks, the chief one being called Stieber, and 
besides I would have a less criticial vantage-point there than here. 

You can see from the enclosed cuttings what we have been 
engaged on here. The Guardian report is by us"*; what a 
PENNY-A-LINER makes of it is shown by the accompanying report from 
the Courier*—-enough to make you die laughing. It must be the 
first time that French workers have been fanatically applauded by 
German philistines and shop-assistants in Manchester. 

I have written to Dupont and intend to see him this evening. 

Where do you plan to go to the seaside? South of the Humber 
there is nothing on the east coast. To the north there is 
Scarborough—dear and crowded, and Bridlington Quay. If you 
decide on the latter, we could meet there. I shall send you the £40 
as soon as you wish. 

I wish the damned panic would abate somewhat; I need to sell 
SOME SHARES, 

I have saved Résler up for later.” 

The last issue of Wilhelm’s Volksstaat has not reached me.‘ 
Particularly annoying at the present time. 

Best greetings to you all from Lizzie and myself. 

Your 
F. E. 

Kugelmann returned herewith. 

Did you read how Bonaparte is now flirting with the Marseillaise 
and the noble Thérésa‘ gives a performance of it every evening 
with her grosse voix de sapeur‘? 

The Marseillaise sung by Thérésa—that is the spitting image of 
Bonapartism. Ugh!