Karl Marx

The Harvest in Europe

From the English.

[“New-York Daily Tribune,” No. 6043, September 6, 1860]

London, August 21, 1860

The more the season progresses, the gloomier become the harvest prospects and the fainter the hopes still founded on a possible return of fine weather. The character of the past summer was altogether exceptional, not only throughout the United Kingdom, but in the whole of Northern Europe—including Northern France, Belgium, and the Rhine provinces. As regards England, the season has been correctly described in the following words:

“After the cold, backward spring, June proved so exceptionally wet that in many districts turnips could not be sown, mangel-wurzels could not be hoed, nor any of the operations customary at that period be performed. Then, after ten days of fine weather, it became so unsettled that two consecutive days without rain were almost a surprise. But besides this excess of moisture, the present, we may already say past, summer was remarkable for lack of sunshine and for very low temperatures, which prevailed even when there was no rain.”

The average rainfall this year amounted to 20 inches, and as the rainfall during the months of May and June reached 11.17, it appears that in these two months more than half the quantity of water for a year fell. During the past week, at the beginning of which a favourable change seemed to set in, the weather proved more unsettled and stormy than ever, thunder-storms and south-west gales occurring on the 16th and 18th, accompanied by veritable floods of rain. In consequence, the price of wheat in Mark Lane yesterday rose about 2s. per quarter above the market price of last Monday.

The hay harvest has already been seriously endangered and delayed by the cold and the incessant wind and rain. The grass lying flat and constantly covered with water, it is feared that much of its nutritive value has already been washed away, so that a large portion of it is unfit for fodder and must be used as litter, which constitutes a very serious loss, one that will greatly increase the consumption of summer corn. Much has yet to be harvested, but much is irretrievably lost.

“There can be little doubt,” says “The Gardeners’ Chronicle” of last Saturday, “that the wheat crop has suffered essential damage. Out of 140 reports from as many correspondents in England and Scotland, no fewer than 91 declare that the harvest is below the average, and when the principal wheat-growing districts are considered, it is to be noted that the proportion of unfavourable reports is equally great. Thus, five out of six reports from Lincolnshire, three out of five from Norfolk and Suffolk, and all from the counties of Oxford, Gloucestershire, Wilts, Hants, and Kent are unfavourable.”

A great part of the wheat rotted at the root before the grain was ripe, and in many districts it has been spoiled by mildew and smut. While, therefore, the wheat, and that in many districts to a great extent, became diseased, the potato disease, which began in 1845, persisted with all virulence during the four following years, and has gradually abated since 1850, has reappeared with increased severity, not only in Ireland, but in many districts of England and the northern Continent.

“The Freeman’s Journal” sums up the general harvest prospects of Ireland as follows:

“The oat crop is generally regarded as almost lost. Except in a few inconsiderable districts, the oats are not yet ripe; they are completely green and laid flat by the violence of the weather. The wheat will in all probability share in the calamity which threatens the corn harvest in general. Very little of it has been cut as yet, and the prospects of this crop, which but a few weeks ago inspired the most sanguine expectations, now arouse the deepest consternation among the farmers. With regard to the potato crop, the general opinion is that, if the present weather continues another month, it is irretrievably lost.”

According to the Wexford “Independent,” “the potato disease is spreading, and in some places a full third of the potatoes are affected, irrespective of size, sort, and time of planting.”

So much, therefore, seems certain: the main harvest will be delayed far beyond the usual term, and the existing stocks will consequently become scarce. The partial failure of the hay harvest, together with the potato disease, will press upon the cereals to an unusual extent, and the yield of all grain crops, especially wheat, will be far below the average. Hitherto the imports from abroad, compared with those of 1858 and 1859, instead of surpassing them, show, on the contrary, a marked decline. On the other hand, corn prices, although they are now on average 26 per cent higher than in the corresponding period of last year, have been kept down by the news of abundant harvests in America and Southern Russia, by the hope of a favourable change in the weather, and by the extraordinary caution which the recent crash in the leather trade has imposed upon all money transactions. By a comparison of present prices with those of similar harvests since 1815, I have arrived at the conclusion that the average price of wheat, which may now be taken at 58s. to 59s. per quarter, must rise, at least in England, to 65s. or 70s. The effect of such a rise in price upon the price of flour will be considerably aggravated by its coincidence with a progressive decline in the export business of the country. From the amount of £63,003,159 realized during the six months ending June 30, 1859, the British exports in the corresponding period of 1860 have fallen to £62,019,989; and the decrease, as I have shown in a previous article, was mainly attributable to a decline in the sale of cotton goods and yarns, in consequence of the glut in the markets of Asia and Australia. While exports thus decline, imports, as compared with the corresponding period of 1859, have considerably risen. We find, indeed, during the five months ending May 31, 1859, imports to the amount of £44,968,863, and in 1860 to the amount of £57,097,638.

This preponderance of imports over exports must necessarily increase the drain of gold, and thereby aggravate the unsettled state of the money market which characterizes all periods of bad harvests and extraordinary purchases of foreign corn. If in England the effect of the immense monetary pressure is not likely to extend far beyond the economic sphere, it is quite another thing on the Continent, where serious political disturbances are almost inevitable whenever a money crisis coincides with a bad harvest and increasing taxation. Already the gravest apprehensions are being voiced in Paris, where the municipality is just now engaged in buying up large quantities of old houses in order to have them pulled down and thus provide work for the “ouvriers” <“workers”>. The Paris prices of best wheat range at this moment as high, if not somewhat higher, than the London prices, namely at 60s. 6d. to 61s. The latest tricks by which Louis Napoleon has attempted to divert public opinion—the Syrian expedition, the advancement of Spain to a “great power,” the transactions with Prussia, and the attempts to obstruct Garibaldi’s progress—have all proved complete failures. He is compelled to face the dangers of a bad season, a money stringency, and a curtailed State budget at the very moment when his political “prestige” is obviously and considerably waning. If any proof were needed for the latter assertion: does not his letter to “Mon cher Persigny” exist?