Friedrich Engels

[The Inevitability of War]

Translated from the English.

[“New-York Daily Tribune” No. 5624, April 30, 1859]

London, Friday, April 15, 1859

Although diplomacy continues to exert every effort to bring about a congress and, with its help, a peaceful settlement of the Italian question, no one any longer believes in the possibility of avoiding war. The British cabinet and Prussia are undoubtedly sincere in their desire for peace; Russia and France, however, are using the present negotiations solely to gain time. Deep snow still lies on Mont Cenis, which the French army must cross on its way to Italy. Several additional French and Arab regiments in France and Algeria have yet to be raised, and the preparations for transporting the troops from Marseille and Toulon to Genoa are not yet complete, while the Russians need time to organise the Wallachian militia and the irregular Serbian army. Meanwhile, the war party in Vienna is gaining influence, and Franz Joseph desires nothing more ardently than the first thunder of cannon. Why, then, does he support the proposals for a congress, knowing that the delay brought about by diplomacy merely exhausts his financial resources and increases the strength of his enemies? The answer is to be sought in the attitude of the Prince of Prussia, who, untouched by the German enthusiasm, seeks an honourable pretext in order to maintain an honourable neutrality and to avoid the enormous cost of an armed neutrality which would sooner or later lead to war. Should Austria, in its eagerness to defeat the Piedmontese army, begin the war, such a policy on the part of the Berlin cabinet would be justified even in the eyes of Germany; an attack by the French on Austria in Lombardy, on the other hand, would necessarily lead to a formal appeal by Franz Joseph to the German Confederation to put the federal armies on a war footing.

Such are the real intentions of Austria, and it is amusing to watch how the diplomats of the various parties try to outwit one another by clever moves in order to force the adversary to strike the first blow. France censures Austria’s despotism; the man who peopled Lambessa and Cayenne with French republicans is shocked that Franz Joseph is filling his gaols with Italian republicans. Austria, on the other hand, which confiscated Cracow and abrogated the Hungarian constitution, solemnly invokes the sanctity of treaties. Russia, which has now suddenly discovered that paper money is a great evil and is therefore raising a very large loan, naturally has no warlike intentions, but proposes four points as the basis for a congress. They are the exact counterpart of the famous four points which Austria presented to Russia during the Crimean War. They contain Austria’s renunciation of its protectorate over the Italian duchies, the holding of a congress to determine the political order and necessary reforms in Italy, and a revision of the minor points of the great treaties, such as the right to maintain garrisons in Ferrara, Comacchio and Piacenza, which would be rendered superfluous by a declaration of Italy’s neutrality. England receives these proposals in good faith, modifies them in form, and brings them to Austria’s notice. Count Buol naturally hastens to accept them, but in such equivocal language that no doubt remains of his desire to reject them outright. He adds, however, a new point, namely, prior general disarmament. Lord Malmesbury considers this proposal very reasonable and calls upon Count Cavour to disband part of the Sardinian army, thereby relieving the country of a great burden. Count Cavour has no objection to such an excellent suggestion, but, pointing to the enormous Austrian war strength in Lombardy, turns to Count Buol and says: “After you.” Count Buol replies that he cannot begin disbanding his costly battalions until Napoleon does the same. Napoleon impudently replies: “I have not armed, consequently I cannot disarm. I have asked neither Rothschild nor Péreire for a loan; I have no war budget. I maintain my army from the regular resources of the country; how then can I disarm?” Perplexed by this impudent answer, yet still endeavouring to try his diplomatic luck, Lord Malmesbury next proposes that the Congress should begin with the question of disarmament and decide it first; but the Stock Exchange and every sensible person in Europe laugh at his credulity and prepare for the worst.

The German nation is very agitated. The agitation stirred up by the Hanoverian court against France has, however, suddenly taken a different direction. Awakening from its apathy, the people consider the time has come to settle accounts not only abroad but also at home, and if the present state of uncertainty should last a few months longer, Germany will certainly be prepared to take up arms against France, but only on condition that it obtains liberty and unity at home. The Prince of Prussia knows his countrymen in this respect better than Franz Joseph or the King of Bavaria, and therefore tries to prevent the spread of the agitation, which must inevitably become dangerous to his semi-despotic aspirations.

Russia now has a favourable opportunity either to disrupt the Turkish Empire through revolutions in Bosnia, Bulgaria and Albania or to take revenge on the Emperor of Austria. Of course, it would not go to war against Franz Joseph, but it could instigate and support a Moldavian-Wallachian incursion into Transylvania and a Serbian one into Hungary. The Tsar will naturally try, with the help of the Wallachian and Slavonian elements, to disturb Hungary in particular, for an independent, free Hungarian state could become a more effective barrier to his aggressive policy than the decrepit centralising despotism of Austria.

The King of Naples, Ferdinand II, is drawing his last breath. Great agitation reigns in the kingdom; some speak of a constitution, others of an uprising of Murat’s supporters. Most probable is the formation of a ministry under Filangieri, Duke of Satriano, representing an enlightened absolutism on the original Prussian model. Such a system, however, cannot last in the face of an Italian crisis, and would soon have to give way first to a constitution and then to a Sicilian rebellion, while Murat would fish in troubled waters.