London, Tuesday, October 18, 1853 

The Turkish manifesto addressed on the 4th of October to the 
four Great Powers as a justification of the Sultan’s* declaration of 
war against the Czar,” is, in every respect, superior to the huge 
mass of state papers, which Europe has been inundated with since 
May, 1853. 

The Sultan, it states, has given no motive for quarrel. There 
remained not even a pretext for it, after the question of the Holy 
Shrines had been settled. On the part of Russia all treaties were 
infringed; on the part of Turkey all means of conciliation 
exhausted. According to the Powers themselves, the Sultan was not 
to subscribe to Prince Menchikoff’s note. How, then, could he be 
expected to adopt the Vienna note, which, as a whole, was not 
different from that of Prince Menchikoff’s? The explanatory 
epistle of the Vienna conference could not change the condition of 
affairs. The clear and precise paragraph of the treaty of Kainardji 
being misconstrued by Russia, what would not be the risk of 
“placing in her hands vague and obscure paragraphs affording her 
a solid pretext for her pretentions to a religious Protectorate?” 
Moreover, the modifications proposed by the Sultan have been 
fully justified by the subsequent explanations published by 
Nesselrode. The occupation of the Principalities had, at first sight, 
constituted a casus belli, and the Porte is now decided to proclaim 
it a casus belli. Prince Gorchakoff has, accordingly, been sum- 
moned to evacuate the Danubian provinces. If fifteen days after 

the arrival of that notification he should answer in the negative, 
Omer Pasha is to commence hostilities, the Russian agents are to 
quit the Ottoman states, and the commercial relations of the two 
countries to be broken off. No embargo, however, will be laid 
upon Russian merchant vessels, but they will receive orders to 
leave the Turkish ports. The straits will remain open to the 
mercantile navy of friendly Powers. 

Such is the substance of the Sultan’s manifesto. 

The Turkish ultimatum was intimated to Prince Gorchakoff on 
the 9th inst. Accordingly, the term for evacuating the Principalities 
expires on the 25th inst. The threat, however, of commencing 
hostilities cannot be understood in a literal sense, as Omer Pasha is 
certain not to abandon his strong positions, with a view to 
attacking the Russians. 

In The Morning Herald of yesterday you will find confirmed my 
observations on the westward movement of the Russian army, and 
the secret understanding with Austria which this movement 
indicates.’ 

Russia, true to the old Asiatic system of cheating and petty 
tricks, now plays upon the credulity of the Western World by 
spreading the rumor that the Czar had “just sent a courier in all 
haste to Vienna to declare that he accepted freely and completely 
the whole of the conditions proposed by the mediating powers,” 
when, unfortunately, “he became informed of the declaration of 
war on the side of the Porte.” Then, of course, the God of the 
Russians retracted at once all the concessions he had ever made, and 
exclaimed that “nothing remained but war, and war to the knife,” 
(guerre a l’outrance). Thus the Czar, it appears, has been forced 
into war by the Sultan. 

Mr. de Bruck, the Austrian Internuncio, is said to have 
interrogated the Porte whether it intended to appeal to the 
political refugees in order to form a foreign legion. Reshid Pasha 
replied that, notwithstanding the propositions incessantly made to 
the Porte, he had not yet come to any decision; but that in the 
case of Turkey being abandoned by her allies, she would believe 
herself perfectly justified in making use of all means for her 
proper defense, and in employing the services of the political 
refugees disseminated throughout the several countries of Europe. 

We read in the Constitutionnel ”: 

> Of October 15, 1853.—Ed. 

‘We have reason to believe that there has arrived at this moment at Paris and 
London an official demand for the succor of France and England on the part of 
the Sublime Porte.” 

You will read in the newspapers that the Emperor of Austria* 
has reduced his army by about 100,000 men. The truth is that this 
number have been dismissed on furlough, but are revocable at any 
moment. The financial pressure on the one side, and the hope of 
thus catching the money-lenders on the other, have induced the 
Vienna Cabinet to take this step. 

The following extract from a London commercial circular, 
concerning the corn trade of France, will, I suppose, be read with 
interest: 

“From a very extensive correspondence [...] taking every possible trouble to 
ascertain the real state of the case, we believe the crop of wheat in France to be on 
an average fully one-third short, varying according to locality, the greatest 
deficiency being in the south. It is true that journals under the influence of the 
Government have endeavored to persuade the public that such is not the case, but 
the very acts of the Government are a sufficient contradiction to such assertions. It 
first relaxed the Navigation Laws in favor of this country; it then repealed them 
altogether; next it anticipated the reduction of the duty, which the sliding-scale 
would of itself have secured, by fixing it at the minimum (without reference to the 
sections into which France is divided at various rates of duty) and opened the ports 
to foreign vessels free of tonnage dues. Since then it has opened all the rivers and 
canals free to corn vessels, and invited the railways to carry the food at reduced 
rates; it has opened Algeria free, and allowed it to ship to France by any tonnage; 
it has prohibited the export of potatoes and vegetables, and has not hesitated to 
interfere arbitrarily in many markets between buyers and sellers. Surely all this 
confirms a short crop, or are very unnecessary precautions. The trade in France 
has, however, been in a state of suspense for some time: not that the merchants 
throughout the kingdom have any doubt as to the result of the harvest, but the 
false step which the Government adopted with regard to fixing the price of bread 
has so perplexed them that they have been. afraid to act, and it is notorious that 
as soon as the decree was issued, telegraphs were sent off in all directions, cancel- 
ling the orders given for corn; and it is impossible to estimate the ultimate conse- 
quence this measure may have upon prices. The average production of wheat in 
France is estimated at 80 millions of hectolitres (about 28 millions qrs.), the 
highest production during the last 25 years having been 97 millions in 1847, and the 
lowest 52 millions in 1830. The growth of wheat has increased very much of late years, 
much faster in proportion than the population; and the fact that stocks are completely 
exhausted at the present time, shows that the population have been much better fed 
and in a more prosperous condition than they used to be. 

“The following table will show the progress of the population and production 
during the last 25 years: 

Average production of 
Wheat in five years. 

Population Hectolitres 
LSS 1 occieeiseeiewts tase 32,569,223 from 1827 to 1831 57,821,336 
LS SG: fissatiavistrnenenteernasans 33,540,910 from 1832 to 1836 68,684,919 
VE: 3 ee eaece ire ee eran ee ee 34,240,178 from 1837 to 1841 71,512,258 
T8406 seccccceeseseieis isi iebeseienss 35,400,486 from 1842 to 1846 = 72,015,564 
ROOT ocd Aha cevesseisacccae 35,781,821 from 1847 to 1851 =86,121,123 

“The increase of consumption, in proportion to the increase of population, will 
cause the effect of a bad harvest to be more severely felt, as there are no old stocks 
left to fall back upon, and of course no stocks of foreign grain in warehouse.”* 

The sinister intentions of the governing classes of England, with 
regard to Turkey, may be inferred from the sermons of Messrs. 
Bright and Cobden at Edinburgh, from the Gladstone speeches at 
Manchester, and from the hint thrown out by several papers, that, 
in the case of a Russo-Turkish war, Lord Aberdeen will be 
replaced by Lord Palmerston, the chivalrous antagonist of 
Russia. 

Jail Inquiries are now a constant feature in the reports of the 
press. From what has been disclosed it appears that prison 
discipline in Birmingham consists of collars and mural torture; in 
Leicestershire of cranks,* and in Hampshire of the less artificial 
method of starvation. And “you call this a free country!” 

I stated, in a former letter, that the so-called peace concluded 
with Burma, was but an armistice, and that the new acquisitions 
would prove an endless source of new troubles to the British 
conquerors.” The last overland mail informs us, indeed, that the 
war party in Burma is increasing in strength; that the new 
territories are literally overrun by large bands of robbers, 
instigated by the Government of Ava and requiring a considerable 
increase of military force at Prome, and that 

“the British troops are sick and disgusted, healthy sites for barracks having not 
yet been discovered.” “ 

The shameful neglect of all means of irrigation on the part of 
the Indo-British rulers, is again producing, in the district of Patna, 
its regular quota of cholera and famine, consequent on the long 
continued drouth. 

“ Quoted from The Economist, No. 529, October 15, 1853.—Ed. 
©“ The Times, No. 21560, October 15, 1853.—Ed. 

From a return just issued I abstract the following statistics of 
wrecks of British and foreign vessels on the coasts of the United 
Kingdom?: 

Year Total Sunk Strand- Lives Total sum 

wrecks by leaks ed lost of wrecks 

or collisions 
1850 277 84 304 784 681 
1851 358 — 348 750 701 
1852 — — —_ about 1100 
900 
Sum total of wrecks during the 3 years........... 2,482 
And of lives JOSt ....ccccccceeccceecccseeceeneeeeaeeeenuesteeneree: 2,434 
Written on October 18, 1853 Reproduced from the New-York 
Tribune, No. 3912, October 31, 1853;