Manchester, 12 June 1861 
Dear Moor, 
Unfortunately, I haven’t been keeping any newspapers on the 
American war, besides many of the places are not to be found on 
the map. The essential points are as follows: 
The South had been quietly arming for years, particularly since 

a Lion Philips 

the fuss over the presidential elections and, at the very last 
moment, had received money and arms en masse as a result of the 
treachery on the part of Buchanan’s ministers.*!* By 4 March, 
therefore, the North was completely crippled. Moreover, prior to 
the fall of Sumter,”*? Lincoln did not or could not do anything, 
save effect a somewhat greater concentration of his few regular 
troops (18,000 in all, the majority scattered about the West on 
anti-Indian duties) and refurbish their equipment. Now finally, 
after the attack on Sumter, the North was sufficiently aroused to 
silence all outbursts on the part of the opposition, thereby making 
powerful military action a possibility. 75,000 men were drafted 
and may now be serving, but it would seem that ten times that 
number were eager to volunteer, so that there may be up to 
100,000 men now serving even though they won’t by any means 
have been concentrated yet. A further call-up by Lincoln is 
expected daily and will take less time, for everything is better 
prepared now. The 75,000 men, or rather the element occupying 
positions in the Washington region, on the Ohio facing Kentucky, 
and in St Louis (Missouri) (ie. not counting the reserves in Ohio 
and Pennsylvania), have been sufficient for the time being to 
restore the balance between the forces of North and South along 
the line of the Potomac and momentarily even to permit a limited 
offensive by the North. 

For the South, just as for the North, the primary objective was 
Washington. The South’s offensive in that direction was far too 
weak; beyond Richmond the main force was evidently not strong 
enough to put in a timely thrust. All they managed to do was send 
a mobile column to Harpers Ferry on the Potomac above 
Washington. This position is ideally suited to an offensive against 
the North (Maryland and Pennsylvania), for it lies at the 
confluence of the Shenandoah, an important river, and the 
Potomac, is extremely strong tactically and commands both rivers 
completely. Seemingly, it was not without intent that the Federal 
Armory was sited up there by a government that foresaw and 
favoured future secession. The occupation of Harper’s Ferry 
disrupts the control of the Potomac line by Union troops at a 
sensitive spot and will immediately afford the Southern troops 
complete command of both banks, assuming they advance en masse 
to this line. 

The fate of Maryland and Delaware was dependent on 
Washington being held by the North; cut off from the South and 
occupied by Union troops, they at once fell to the Union. A 
second success for the North. 

The reconquest of Missouri by the St Louis Germans*' was the 
third success and one of enormous importance, for whoever holds 
St Louis blocks the Mississippi. The extent to which Kentucky’s 
neutrality is favourable to North or South will probably depend on 
circumstances and events. For the time being, at any rate, it will 
restrict the theatre of war to* the area that lies further east.° 

Result: Thus, for all its preparations, the South has achieved 
nothing, save that the North, after only 1 month’s preparation, has 
already wrested from it the national capital and three slave states, 
while a fourth slave state doesn’t dare secede;*'’ also that the 
South’s offensive on the Potomac has come to a halt, whereas the 
North has already advanced beyond this river, as yet without 
meeting resistance. For every man the South can still produce, the 
North will produce three or four. The seceded states have about 
7'/, million inhabitants, of which more than 3 million are slaves; a 
minimum of 1 million whites must be deducted to guard the 
slaves, so that barely 2'/, million are left as the aggregate of the 
population available for war. If 10% of these are mobilised, 
probably the largest number ever mobilised for defensive pur- 
poses, this will produce at most 250,000 men. But there would 
certainly not be a muster of that order. Switzerland, with pretty 
well the same population— rather more than 2 millions—has on 
paper about 160,000 militiamen. By contrast the North— 

_reckoning the free states alone—numbers nearly 20 millions, all 
of whom are available with the exception, perhaps, of. California, 
Utah and the territories in the far West. If we say the available 
population amounts to 17 millions and if we assume that not 10% 
but simply one third of that, ie. 3'/5%, are available for an 
offensive war, we arrive at over 500,000 men, more than enough to 
quell the South, even if it exerts itself to the utmost. Man for man, 
there is no question that the people from the North are markedly 
superior to those from the South, both physically and morally. 
Your pugnacious SourHerner has a good deal of the cowardly 
assassin in him. Each of them goes about armed, but only because 
this will enable him, during a quarrel, to fell his antagonist before the 
latter expects to be attacked. That is the aver...