Bravo Kugelmann! One can see the man has not gone through his schooling for nothing. The hypothesis is entirely in the spirit of the actors and explains everything. But if it is in point of fact correct, then at the very least the business has already got beyond Bismarck’s control. The gentlemen have evidently succeeded in provoking a full-scale national war in Germany. The many tâtonnements over the cession of German territory, Luxembourg, etc., by which, as usual, L. Bonaparte wished to accustom the public in advance to the impending fait accompli, have had the very opposite effect on the German Michel. He is evidently this time entirely at one with himself that this humbug must be put an end to once and for all. In face of this, and also in face of the two armies and the stubborn old Wilhelm, a sham war is out of the question; on ira au fond.

The sudden hesitation and vacillation in the French operations – evidently calculated for the middle of this week – is proof that L. B[onaparte] realises how greatly he has miscalculated. The rapid entry of the South Germans and, then, the certainty that he will have to deal with the German people itself have thwarted the swift surprise of Mainz by a bombardment and a thrust in the direction of Würzburg with only half-assembled forces. If at all, he must now attack with all his forces. But there’s still time for that. The order to form the 4th battalions of the regiments was not given until the 15th or 16th; their cadres consist of 4 companies from the 3 field battalions of each regiment, so they must first be raised to 6–8 companies and completed with reserves. The calling up of men on leave took place in Paris on the 19th and 20th, that of the trained reserves on 21 and 22 July, that of the untrained reserves tomorrow. The first two categories must first reach their regiments before these are complete. And as a result the opening of the campaign – minor skirmishes apart – is postponed at least until the middle of next week. By then, however, the Germans may be so strong that B[onaparte] may think it necessary to wait for the fourth battalions, and that means another 8–14 days’ delay. And then he is foutu.

Yesterday a German philistine here told me that on Saturday he had travelled by rail in Westphalia with a Prussian general who took him for an Englishman and spoke English to him. He said: “It is true enough, we are about ten days behindhand, but if during ten days you do not hear that we have suffered a great defeat, we shall soon have your sympathies.” Asked what he meant by that, he said: “The sympathies of the English, you know, are always on the side of success.”

Mobilisation began in North Germany on the 16th, in Bavaria on the 17th. Reserves and Landwehr infantry can be ready in about 8 days, the rest will be ready 13 days from the start of mobilisation. Thus the whole infantry will be ready on the 25th, everything on the 30th. But since reserves are already turning up in masses without being called, the field army will be ready even earlier. On the Rhine, for certain, stand the 7th, 8th, II and 12th Army Corps. The Guards are also away from Berlin, as Borchardt, who arrived from there yesterday, tells me; I suppose in Bavaria, to serve under the fair Crown Prince. The passage of troops from the East through Berlin was to begin yesterday. From Sunday or Monday onwards, B[onaparte] will at most be able to occupy the Palatinate, but no longer be able to cross the Rhine, unless the others make gross mistakes. From the end of next week the Germans can attack and roll an army into France, which must overthrow whatever B[onaparte] throws against it, even if after several hard battles. As matters stand now, I consider a campaign successful for B[onaparte] an impossibility.

I rather fancy writing 2 articles a week on the war for the Pall Mall Gazette for good hard cash!; I shall write one on the military organisation as a trial. One should get 3–4 guineas per article, the “Guardian” paid me 2 guineas at that time and would have paid more.!! If you can arrange it tomorrow, let me know at once. To go to Prussian headquarters as a correspondent has many snags, the biggest of which is Stieber, and besides I should have less critical insight there than here.

What we have been up to here you will see from the enclosed cuttings. The “Guardian” report is by ourselves!!!; what a penny-a-liner makes of it is shown by the enclosed “Courier” report – enough to make one die laughing. It is probably the first time that the French workers in Manchester have been fanatically applauded by German philistines and shop assistants.

I have written to Dupont; I think I shall see him this evening.

Where do you want to go at the sea-side? On the East coast there is nothing south of the Humber. Northwards, Scarborough – expensive and crowded, and Bridlington Quay; if you take the latter, we could meet there. I’ll send the £40 as soon as you like.

I wish the damned panic would cease a bit; I must sell shares.

I’ve still kept Rösler up my sleeve for myself. Wilhelm’s “Volksstaat” last number hasn’t reached me. Just now that’s annoying.

Best greetings from Lizzie and me to you all.

Yours,
F. E.

Kugelmann’s letter enclosed, return.

Have you read how B[onaparte] is now flirting with the Marseillaise and the noble Thérèse belts it out every evening with her grosse voix de sapeur? The Marseillaise in Thérèse’s mouth — that is the very image of Bonapartism. Ugh, the devil.