It Is Possible To Win A Fairly Long Period Of Peace

Date: 1959-10-18
Source: en:FLP-Diplomacy
IT IS POSSIBLE TO WIN A FAIRLY
LONG PERIOD OF PEACE*
{October 18, 1959)
The entire international situation is taking a favorable turn. It is barely
likely that the West will continue its high-pressure, position-of-strength,
cold-war policy. The majority of the Western ruling circles, for instance, the
American and the British, are haunted by the fear of a third world war. The
reason for a detente, if any, in the cold-war situation is that their previous
cold-war policy turned out to be so unfavorable to them that they have
changed it a bit and relaxed the situation accordingly. However, things are not
that simple, for they have attached equal importance to, one, relaxing the
situation a bit and, two, provoking tension again if detente proves unfavorable
to them. This is the duality of the bourgeoisie. Their "love of peace" is not
in complete conformity with our love of peace. For example, there are
differences between the American and the Japanese monopoly capital and
between the Japanese monopoly capital and the Japanese people. Differences
also exist within the monopoly capital itself, differences between
the part of national betrayal and other parts. Even within a
clique, such as Eisenhower's, things are not that simple, for there is duality.
We have difficulties, but so do they, even more than we. It is possible for us
to make use of their difficulties to win a time of peace, not just a short period.
It is possible to win a fairly long period of peace. You should make use of their
internal contradictions. They indeed encounter difficulties, and it is just
because of difficulties that they call for detente; otherwise, why take the
trouble for detente? There is no unanimity among Western countries. People
in Western countries who love peace always differ from their governments, as
do the proletariat from the bourgeoisie. In addition, people in Asia, Africa and
Latin America are all against the control of imperialism. Of course, there are
stooges of imperialism; however, the broad range of people are opposed to
imperialism.
Socialist countries remain united, their camp strengthened. It is no longer
easy for imperialists to launch a war. The Soviet Union is fortified, and
socialist countries stick together and are consolidated. In such a context the
imperialists cannot help having second thoughts about launching a war.
We have all along estimated that the international situation will keep
improving, not the other way round. Only one situation needs to be reckoned
with; i.e., what if some lunatics want to start a third world war. What's to be
done, then? That's why we should take war into account, too. There is a
possibility that peace might be undermined, and after detente, tensions will
again be created, surprise attacks made, large-scale wars launched, and so on
and so forth. Having taken all these situations into account, we say the
situation in general has been improving. Judging from the overall conditions,
it is possible for us to win ten to 15 years of peace. Supposing this comes true,
they will find it more difficult to fight a world war by then. The socialist camp
will be much stronger by then than it is now. It will turn out to be rather
difficult for Western countries to solve the contradictions among themselves,
the Japanese-U.S. contradiction and many other contradictions caused by
military bases and agreements.
Supposing you do not succeed in opposing a revision of the Japan-U.S.
"Security Pact," which will subsequently be devised, then this treaty will be
presented to the Japanese people again in ten years, serving to educate the
Japanese people to strengthen their unity for struggle.
In general, the United States, Britain and France differ from Germany
and Japan. That is to say, the United States, Britain and France have quite a
few colonies and semicolonies. They have so many places to guard, ranging
from Taiwan and South Korea to Turkey, all of which need guarding. In this
regard, they are very rich. The United States, though without any colonies,
has many semicolonies, such countries and regions as South Korea and Taiwan,
to guard and maintain the status quo. West Germany and Japan are different.
During World War I Germany was stripped of its colonies, and it did not take
any colonies during World War 11. Japan expanded its colonies through World
War I, but was deprived of all its colonies after World War 11. Not resigned
to defeat, they intend to resume their occupation of colonies, but are not yet
fully prepared, owing to the current control of the United States. They wish
to break away from the United States and eventually to engage in expansion.
I should like to exchange views with you concerning whether the aforesaid is
correct or not.
There should be an estimate of adventurist circles. The most powerful is
the U.S. adventurist circles, but it is difficult for it to launch a war of
aggression at present, because it is not yet prepared. Nor is it easy for West
Germany and Japan, which are under the control of the United States, to
launch a war. The reason Kishi Nobusuke has intended to amend Article IX
of the Constitution is because this article restrains him from expansion and
his wish to revive militarism. There is a slogan of peace and independence in
the program of your Party, and this is most applicable to reality.
(From the verbatim record)