Four Points in an Analysis of the
Current Situation1
(March 15, 1946)
Regarding the current situation, there are four points of analysis I want to make.
You can all judge whether or not they are right. These have always been my
views, but looking at things now, they still seem to be at a formative stage. The
current situation is indeed tumultuous, with repercussions in other countries.
Many people have asked whether a third world war might break out. More than
a few people are worried about this, even though those whom we have asked say
that it will not occur. I would like to make four points:
First, the main fascist force has been crushed, and this has opened the road for
the forward development of the people’s democratic forces in countries around
the world. All of us, including Stalin and Molotov,2 say the same. It is a fact that
the main fascist forces have indeed been defeated. The downfall of fascism means
the forward development of democracy, not its extinction.
Second, of the remaining elements of the fascist forces and the neo-fascist
elements among the Allies (people like Churchill, Hurley, and He Yingqin,3
Churchill did not used to be [one], but he is now; Hurley is an isolationist; I
do not include here the British Labour Party and Chiang Kaishek, only those
“experts” who adopt a one-sided and not a two-sided policy) [who] are already
organizing and will continue to organize in the future a reactionary anti-Soviet,
anti-Communist, anti-democratic, and anti-revolutionary movement, and will try to start a third world war. These reactionary forces are the principal enemies now
and for the future. It will be difficult to avoid a third world war if these forces are
not vanquished.
Third, there are two components to the democratic forces in every capitalist
country: the general population and the pro-Soviet, pro-Communist bourgeoisie.
Experiencing the Second World War significantly raised the consciousness of the
general population, and the general population can actively engage in opposing
reactionary activities against the Soviet Union and communism and a third world
war. In addition, the bourgeoisie in Britain, America, France, China, Germany,
Italy, and Japan are splitting into two large blocs and will continue splitting in
the future, becoming anti-Soviet and anti-Communist on the one hand and proSoviet and pro-Communist on the other. The past divisions of the bourgeoisie
were an important condition in the defeat of the principal fascist forces. (If there
had been only Chamberlain4 and no Churchill, only Wang Jingwei and no Chiang
Kaishek, it would have been impossible to defeat fascism.) The continued splitting now will certainly play a new and more important role, so we should promote
it. There are two groups among the bourgeois, pro-Soviet, pro-Communist bloc:
bourgeois middle-of-the-roaders and left wingers. Chiang Kaishek, for example,
is a middle-of-the-roader. He adheres to two main principles: first, wipe out all
the revolutionary parties; second, retain them temporarily if they cannot be eliminated for the moment, and then eliminate them in the future. But leftists such as
Zhang Dongsun5 are different from Chiang Kaishek. Both can cooperate with us
today. Because the middle elements hold the “retain temporarily” view, this creates the possibility of a compromise. So do not think that the picture is all black
with no glimmer of light. There is a split between the general population and the
bourgeoisie; and the bourgeoisie’s continued division into two is also a split. The
general population, along with the bourgeois pro-Soviets and pro-Communists,
may defeat the conspiracy of the anti-Soviet, anti- Communist elements, and then
in the future there may emerge the possibility of a civil war instead of a world
war. At least a major war can be postponed for ten to fifteen years. If we can gain
ten to fifteen years, there is the possibility of not fighting a world war but only a
civil war. If a world war starts at that time, the reactionary forces definitely will
be defeated.
Fourth, the Party’s line is to unite the general population with the middle elements and the left wing of the bourgeoisie and to defeat the remaining fascist and
reactionary forces among the bourgeoisie. Historically, this has always been the

Party line. We must oppose the most obstinate and uncompromising forces among
the bourgeoisie and join with any forces with whom we can reach a compromise.
No matter how stormy the weather, we must hold to these points. The first
point is very clear. People will easily forget the second one once things calm
down a bit. They forgot it from February 1 to 9, and then they were reminded of
it by the Jiaochangkou Incident.6 Marshall7 is able to play a waiting game. Chiang
Kaishek is different from He Yingqin. If either America or Chiang plays a waiting
game for half a year, some of us will forget the second point and will feel that the
world is at peace, that there is no trouble anywhere. That would be very dangerous. We are going to reduce our armies, but not by any more than that which is
good for us. Some comrades do not understand this, so it must be made clear.
The next five years are a critical period. Within five years, the Soviet Union
will completely recover from the war and we will be stronger too, so we will be
able to get things going more easily. We will be able to avoid being wiped out and
we certainly will avoid this. Naturally, this will entail resolutely fighting against
the reactionaries and, in the process, eliminating as many of them as possible.

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Notes

Our source for this text is Mao Zedong wenji, Vol. 4, pp. 96–99, where it is reproduced
from a transcript record of the speech preserved in the Central Archives.

--- Notes

1.  Mao Zedong delivered this speech at a meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.

2.  Vyacheslav Molotov (1890–1986) was a member of the Politburo of the Communist
Party of the Soviet Union as well as first deputy president of the People’s Commissars and
a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union.

3.  Winston Churchill (1874–1965) was prime minister of the United Kingdom during
World War II. On March 5, 1946, he delivered a speech in which he called for Britain and
the United States to join in opposing the Soviet Union. Patrick J. Hurley was appointed
U.S. ambassador to China in late November 1944, but he resigned in November 1945 due
to controversy over his support for Chiang Kaishek. He Yingqin was chief-of-staff of the
Guomindang government’s Military Affairs Commission and general commander of the
Guomindang army.
DOI:  10.4324/9781315719511-99

4.  Arthur Neville Chamberlain (1869–1940) served as prime minister of the United
Kingdom from 1937 to 1940, during which time he adopted an appeasement policy toward
Germany, Italy, and Japan.

5.  Zhang Dongsun (1886–1973, born in Hangzhou) was an executive member of the
Central Committee of the China Democratic League.

6.  Guomindang secret agents carried out a violent attack on a meeting of twenty political groups celebrating the success of the Political Consultative Conference in Jiaochangkou, Chongqing, on February 10, 1946. More than sixty people were injured.

7.  George Marshall was appointed by the U.S. president as special envoy to China to
take part in the negotiations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Guomindang.
He returned to the United States in August 1946.