Estimation of the International War Situation

(December 12, 1941)

Zhou[1]:

(1) Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaya, Burma, the Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Borneo[2], the Dutch East Indies[3], Australia[4], and New Zealand all face the possibility of being occupied by the Japanese forces within the winter. Within half a year, neither Britain nor America will be a match for Japan, but so long as two or three strongholds such as Singapore, Manila, and Darwin are retained, a stalemate against Japan can be achieved after half a year, awaiting the exhaustion of the Japanese forces, after which a counteroffensive can be launched. (2) The general policy of Britain and America may be to assume the defensive against Japan and take the offensive against Germany, first pooling the forces of Britain, America, and the Soviet Union to settle Germany, and then pooling the forces of Britain, America, the Soviet Union, and China to settle Japan, with the Soviet Union being the decisive force on both fronts. If a second front emerges in Europe after several months, Germany can be settled more quickly; this is a truly advantageous policy, but it is unknown whether the British and American military and political personnel, who are deeply inert, possess such resolve. (3) Germany has now entered a dilemma, but since there is no longer any path forward on the Eastern Front[5], there is the possibility of forcing Hitler to assume the defensive on the Eastern Front and take the offensive on the Southern Front or the Western Front, in which case Hitler himself would be creating a second front, and this would also create the possibility of compelling Britain and America to concentrate their main forces (for Britain, the main forces of the army, navy, and air force; for America, the main forces of air power and resources) to strike at Germany. (4) The Pacific War[1] brings six advantages to China and the Soviet Union: first, the enemy forces in North China and Central China will gradually weaken, meaning there will be no possibility of large-scale reinforcements; second, the possibility of the Kuomintang attacking the Border Region will diminish; third, it will deal a fatal blow to the pro-Japanese and pro-German factions, making it even more possible for us to ensure that the Kuomintang can neither capitulate nor "suppress the Communists"; fourth, the prospects for democratic politics in China will be greater; fifth, the Soviet Union will be able to transfer a portion of its forces from the east to the west; sixth, there is the possibility of swiftly creating a second front in Europe. The above is an estimation made at the Political Bureau meeting on the 8th (internal, not for publication). I hope to hear your views.

Mao Zedong

December 12

[1] The Pacific War refers to the war waged between the anti-fascist alliance nations and Japan in the Pacific region during the Second World War. On December 8, 1941, Japan, without a declaration of war, launched a surprise attack with powerful naval and air forces on Pearl Harbor, the main naval and air base of the United States in the Pacific region, inflicting heavy losses on the U.S. Pacific Fleet. On December 8, the United States and Britain declared war on Japan, and Germany and Italy declared war on the United States, formally breaking out the Pacific War. Japanese forces subsequently invaded and occupied many countries and regions in Southeast Asia as well as some islands in the Pacific, and later, under heavy blows from the armed forces of the anti-fascist countries in the Pacific region, suffered continuous defeats. In August 1945, Japan unconditionally surrendered, and the war ended.