Instructions on the Current Situation¹
(November 1, 1940)

Concerning the current situation:

1. The struggle in China for the past month between England and America, on
one side, and Japan, Germany, and Italy, on the other, has been extremely fierce.
The latter group demands that the Chinese government cease the Sino-Japanese
War and join the alliance of Japan, Germany, and Italy, while the former demands
that China give up the independent war and join the alliance of England and
America. At present, the battle has turned white-hot and Chiang Kaishek has
changed his attitude considerably as a consequence.

2. Britain's opening up of the Yunnan-Burma Road and America's loans to
China and withdrawal of its nationals from China are all signs by which England
and America express their determination to oppose Japan and their demand that
China not go over to the side of Germany, Japan, and Italy; the British and American ambassadors stay in Chongqing and perform their office in person so that they
can keep a tight grip on Chiang Kaishek and prevent him from running off.

3. The closure of the two airports in Yuncheng and northern Hubei, Abe's²
return home, the withdrawal of troops from Nanning and Longzhou, and the official establishment of Haitong Press in Chongqing are, on the other hand, signs of
concessions from Japan, a beginning of Germany's mediation effort and a tendency which is likely to take a sudden turn and then develop rapidly.

4. Chiang Kaishek is now waiting for the highest bid. On the one hand, he is
ready to join the Anglo-American alliance; on the other, he is prepared to ally
himself with Japan, Germany, and Italy. If the U.S.-Japanese war breaks out soon
and victory is assured, he is willing to join the Anglo-American alliance. In the
past month, he has made use of the strength of the alliance of Japan, Germany, and
Italy and he will before long take advantage of the Japanese concessions to exact
yet a higher price from Britain and America.

5. If a war between the United States and Japan, which is of a decisive nature,
does not break out soon (which is the more likely case), or if it does break out but
the United States is not certain of victory (there is no certainty within two years),
if Britain is utterly routed by Germany, Japan, and Italy this winter or next spring
(very probable), if Japan is to retreat from Wuhan and other places, limits its occupation to the coastal areas and North China, and declares that they remain under
Chinese sovereignty and are to be governed by Chiang's appointees (highly likely),
if the Chinese bourgeoisie can make a huge fortune by joining the alliance of
Germany, Japan, and Italy and opposing Britain and America, he would want to
surrender to Japan. This is the path that Chiang Kaishek is most likely to take.

6. The current upsurge of the anti-Soviet and anti-Communist tide is preparation for ceasing the independent war and joining the Anglo-American alliance, but
it is still more a preparation for ending the anti-Japanese war, surrendering to Japan, and joining the alliance of Germany, Italy, and Japan. We must not be taken in
by Chiang Kaishek's propaganda. His uniting with England and America is propaganda, but capitulation to Japan is the reality.

7. Two strategies are needed to obtain concessions from Japan: coercion and
luring by promising gain. That is why Chiang is, on the one hand, making a show
of joining the Anglo-American alliance as a means of coercion, while, on the other
hand, instigating an anti-Communist upsurge as a lure. Chiang Kaishek knows
that Japan needs a consolidated rear, a China "at peace," before it can move south,
and the Communist Party has today become the most decisive factor undermining
Japan's rear. So Chiang Kaishek offers to take up the task of consolidating the rear
on Japan's behalf in exchange for Japan's concessions to him. At the same time,
Europe's Germany and Italy also need to exchange resources with Asia, and Chiang
Kaishek's opposition to the Communists is advantageous to Germany and Italy, so
this anti-Communist upsurge is mainly a preparatory step in capitulation to Japan,
Germany, and Italy.

8. In July and August, when Chiang Kaishek was prepared to move his capital
to Tianshui in the event of the fall of Chongqing, he was getting ready to get closer
to the Soviet Union, make peace with the Communists, and adopt some political
reforms. He had already begun to waver in September and changed drastically in
October. This was a result of the alliance of Germany, Japan, and Italy, and Britain
and America's growing enthusiasm toward Japan.

9. (Omitted [from the Chinese text])

10. Whatever situation prevails, however, the fierce struggle between the
Guomindang and the Communist Party is unavoidable. Regardless of whether it is
to Japan, Germany, and Italy or to Britain and America that Chiang Kaishek surrenders, it will strike a heavy blow to our Party. He is surely determined to carry
out his plan of using armed forces to drive the New Fourth Army and the Eighth


--- Notes

Our source for this text is Mao Zedong ji. Bujuan, Vol. 6, pp. 177-79, where it is reproduced from Wannan shibian.
1. It should be noted that this set of instructions and positions is suspended by the
message to Zhou Enlai issued on the following day. This was a time of rapidly changing
circumstances and consequent uncertainty on the part of Mao and the Yan'an leadership.
2. The reference is to Abe Nobuyuki (1875-1953), who had been prime minister in
1939 and at that time advocated the establishment of the Wang Jingwei government. He
had recently served as special envoy to China.