Estimate Regarding the Current International
Situation, and Policy for Dealing with a
Possible Guomindang Attack

(October 25, 1940, midnight)¹

Zhou [Enlai]:

1. There is certain to be large-scale action on the part of Germany, Italy, and
Japan in the near future. If Germany does not attack Britain, it will turn toward
Africa and India, and Britain will soon have more than it can handle. Japan will
adopt a policy of first occupying the South Seas and then sweeping up China, and
as soon as the four territories of Hong Kong, Singapore, Rangoon, and the Dutch
East Indies fall into Japanese hands, the Chinese pro-British and pro-American
faction will, in turn, have more than it can handle. America's preparations are not
complete, so it might not enter the war right away. If Germany attacks Britain, the
U.S. Navy will simultaneously have to take care of the Atlantic and be unable to
concentrate its forces to deal with the Pacific. So when Japan attacks various places
in the South Seas, a war between Japan and the United States will not necessarily
result. At that time Chongqing's pro-British and pro-American faction will look
on in helpless anxiety. Their present intense infatuation is rather one-sided. To
drop the war for independence and join the Anglo-American alliance is the wish
of the Chongqing pro-British and pro-American faction, but they also fear that
Britain and the United States are unreliable. If Japan occupies the South Seas but
war between Japan and the United States keeps failing to break out, and Britain is
severely defeated by Germany, Italy, and Japan, they still have the possibility of
going over to the Pétainist line. So they are now still vacillating between the British-American line and the Pétainist line, they still dare not offend the Soviet Union too
much, and they find it difficult to make the decision to be completely anti-Communist. Since the big bourgeoisie is vacillating, the national bourgeoisie, the upper level of the petty bourgeoisie, and a number of middle-of-the-road factions are
also vacillating. Given circumstances like these, there is a lot of hidden meaning
behind all this for us.

Our source for this text is Mao Zedong wenji, Vol. 2, pp. 302-3, where it is reproduced from
Mao's handwritten manuscript.
Our source for this directive is Mao Zedong junshi wenji, Vol. 2, pp. 566-68, where it is
reproduced from Mao's handwritten manuscript preserved in the Central Archives.
1. The time is indicated by a character signifying between 11 P.M. and 1 A.M.