Assessment of the Current World Situation and Countermeasures Against a Possible Kuomintang Offensive[1]

(October 25, 1940)

To Zhou:

A. Germany, Italy, and Japan will soon launch large-scale actions. If Germany does not attack the British Isles, it will move toward Africa and India; Britain will soon be thrown into a flurry. Japan will adopt the policy of first seizing the South Seas[2] and then mopping up China. Once the four places of Hong Kong, Singapore, Rangoon, and the Dutch East Indies[3] fall into Japanese hands, the Anglo-American faction in China will also be thrown into a flurry. The United States is not fully prepared and may not go to war very quickly. If Germany attacks the British Isles, the U.S. Navy will have to deal with the Atlantic simultaneously and will be unable to concentrate on the Pacific. When Japan attacks various places in the South Seas, a Japanese-American war will not necessarily break out immediately. At that time, the Anglo-American faction in Chongqing will look on in helpless anxiety. Their present jubilation carries the nature of unrequited love. Abandoning the war of independence and joining the Anglo-American alliance is the aspiration of the Chongqing Anglo-American faction, but they also fear that Britain and the United States are unreliable. If Japan occupies the South Seas and the Japanese-American war is long delayed in breaking out, and Britain is battered to pieces by Germany, Italy, and Japan, they still have the possibility of taking the Pétain[4] line. Therefore, they are still vacillating between the Anglo-American line and the Pétain line. They still dare not overly offend the Soviet Union, and their determination for all-out anti-communism is not easily made. The big bourgeoisie

[1] This is a telegram from Mao Zedong to Zhou Enlai.

[2] The South Seas, i.e., Southeast Asia.

[3] The Dutch East Indies refers to Indonesia, which was then occupied by Dutch colonialists, also known as the "Netherlands East Indies."

[4] Pétain became Premier of France in June 1940. His government adopted a policy of non-resistance to German fascist aggression, signed the Franco-German Armistice Agreement, and subsequently organized a puppet government in Vichy, assuming the title of "Head of State."

is vacillating, and so are the national bourgeoisie, the upper petty bourgeoisie, and many middle-of-the-roaders. If this is the situation, there is much we can do.

B. But we should estimate the most difficult, dangerous, and darkest possibility and take this situation as the starting point for all our dispositions, not the optimistic situation. The darkest situation is that Japan fails to capture Singapore after a prolonged siege, the U.S. Navy controls Singapore, Germany fails to attack the British Isles successfully, the danger of the Chinese Anglo-American faction abandoning the war of independence and joining the Anglo-American alliance increases, and the danger of the majority of the middle-of-the-roaders following Chiang Kai-shek also becomes greater. We must also assume this situation, namely, that the U.S. Navy concentrates its forces to defeat the Japanese Navy, Japan surrenders to the United States, the Japanese Army withdraws from China, the United States arms the Chinese Anglo-American faction financially and militarily, China changes from a Japanese colony to an American colony, and the cooperation between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party turns into a large-scale civil war. Nothing could be darker than this. Even in this situation, we are not afraid, because our Party has been tempered, the Chinese people are in deep suffering, the internal contradictions within the ruling class are manifold, difficulties are immense, the world revolution will inevitably erupt, and the Soviet Union aids the world revolution.

C. There is an intermediate situation, namely, a stalemate between Japan and the United States, a stalemate between China and Japan, a stalemate between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, and a stalemate between Britain and Germany in Europe, with the whole world and the whole of China in a state of neither pain nor itch. We must also prepare to deal with this situation, and we are capable of dealing with it.

D. In short, we must prepare to deal with all situations, and we must have methods for any situation. At present, we should prepare to deal with the darkest scenario. Our countermeasure is to deal with the Kuomintang's offensive in a steady and prudent manner. Militarily, adopt a defensive stance; if he does not attack, we will not move recklessly. Politically, emphasize unity and resistance against Japan, explain to the Kuomintang, the middle-of-the-roaders, and the broad masses of the people the dangers of both the Pétain line and the Anglo-American line, emphasize the independent and self-reliant War of Resistance Against Japan, explain that the current anti-communism and anti-Soviet stance is preparation for abandoning the war of independence and joining the Anglo-American alliance, carry out a complete and total retreat of the Party in the Kuomintang areas, achieve complete self-sufficiency in all base areas (the Border Region is prepared), hold out for another year, and the world situation will undergo great changes. The present is a period of preparation and waiting for the opportune moment.

(This telegram is also to be sent to Dehuai, Hufu, and Xiangying.[1])

Mao Zedong

Youzi

[1] Dehuai, i.e., Peng Dehuai. Hufu, i.e., Liu Shaoqi. Xiangying, then served as Secretary of the New Fourth Army Sub-committee of the Central Military Commission of the CPC Central Committee and Deputy Commander of the New Fourth Army.