(January 28, 1939)

I am going to discuss the current situation. Since you comrades are scattered all
over, and are not completely clear about the situation as a whole, I would like to
take this opportunity to talk about it with you comrades.
We shall look at the problem according to the report and resolution of the Sixth
Plenum. The Sixth Plenum said: "The resistance war can be sustained." This was
said in the first half of October last year, and three months have gone by since then.
How are things going? On October 30 of last year, Chairman Chiang published his
open letter to the people of the whole country. On December 26, he published his
article refuting Konoe.¹ It was very well done. He also deprived Wang Jingwei of
his party membership. All these actions indicated that he wants to carry out resolutely the policy of the Resistance War and prove that the strength of the pro-Japanese faction is unable to shake the Resistance War. In the past, the first question
was whether to fight or not, and there used to be a tendency toward compromise
within the party of our friends, and they were talking about peace. This made
things very difficult. Although our Communist Party is determined to fight no
matter what happens, and we are not going to compromise, everyone knows that
the Communist Party is still the minority in the country as a whole, it is still a small
shareholder in the united front. If we were to fight Japan all alone, it would be still
more difficult. Now that the Guomindang has taken these measures, and has resolved to support resolutely the orientation of the Resistance War, under this condition of "fighting," it is easy to make an issue of things. This is a good thing, it is
a progressive element in the united front.
Let us now discuss the war situation.
Last October we predicted that, after the fall of Wuhan and Guangzhou, we
would suffer more difficulties but would, at the same time, make more progress.
As far as the difficulties are concerned, you comrades are all aware that, because

This is an extract from Mao's talk summing up the results of a conference of the Eighteenth
Army Group in Yan'an. Our source is *Mao Zedong wenji*, Vol. 2, pp. 148-55, where it is
reproduced from the stenographic record in the Central Archives.
1. The reference is to Konoe Fumimaro (1891-1945), who was prime minister of Japan
from June 1937 until January 1939.

of the fall of major cities and communication lines, the political power of the state
as well as the battle terrain are territorially divided by the enemy, and financial and
economic difficulties have increased. As regards progress, it is manifested above
all in persistence in the Resistance War, and in the defeat of the peace party in the
two meetings of the People's Political Council. Well then, can progress overcome
the difficulties? Our answer is in the affirmative. Moreover, only if we are more
progressive, and work harder to overcome difficulties, can we make the war change
into the New Stage. The central task put forward at the Sixth Plenum is also the
task of the people of all China; it is to increase our strength, overcome difficulties,
stop the enemy's offensive, and prepare for our counteroffensive. Its correctness
has been proved already and will continue to be proved in the future.
We say that the enemy's attack has not yet stopped. During the past three months
since the fall of Wuhan and Guangzhou, the enemy has not undertaken any major
actions at the front, but it is fighting fiercely on the flanks and in the rear. There are
people who say that our estimate was wrong, because the enemy has already stopped
his attacks. We do not say this, or think this, because the enemy may still attack
places such as Xi'an, Lanzhou, Changsha, Nanchang, Wuzhou, and Hengzhou, and
we must be prepared. Although until this moment, when I am speaking, my words
have still not been borne out, it is nevertheless better to be prepared, for if we are
not prepared our losses will be even greater. Why will the enemy continue to attack? To begin with, if he does not attack, the fascist warlords will collapse immediately, and the enemy has very great ambitions. Not only does he want to attack all
of China, he also wants to attack Southeast Asia, Burma, Vietnam, and India. In
China, his plan is to oppose Chairman Chiang, oppose the Communist Party, and
sabotage the Anti-Japanese National United Front. He wants to believe he can achieve
his goal, but whether or not he can will depend upon the level of our efforts.
We say that the enemy's attack will stop, but can it stop or not? We say, it must
stop. Japan wants to destroy us, and we want it to stop, but how this can be achieved
can be explained only on the basis of the situations on the enemy's side and on our
own. Because of the small size of the enemy's country, its small population, and
small number of troops, and because, on the other hand, the front is now so long,
stretching to Guangzhou in the south and Baotou in the north, the enemy has suffered from the very beginning from the weakness of lack of troops. When you add
to this the dispersal of forces, its strong army has become weaker. This lack of
troops and dispersal of troops is an incurable disease. Its strength does not allow it
to send more troops to China, because in addition it must be on guard against the
powerful Soviet Union. Besides, Britain, America, and France are also its enemies.
Finally, it has to be on guard against its own people and the people in its colonies.
Therefore, it can send to China at most one-third of its forces. Now it is said that its
troops there already number one million; in the future, it may be able to send at
most another million and no more. This being the case, we will attack it every day
from the front and from its rear; we will fight it with our regular forces and guerrillas to kill and injure its soldiers and exhaust them, so that its troops will be even


fewer in number and even more dispersed, so that it will consume more ammunition and supplies, its strength will be weakened, and it will have to stop the attack.
On the other hand, our country of China will be stronger; we will be able to fight
not only guerrilla war but mobile war, and there will be progress in various other
respects. Though we are still unable to halt the Japanese attack now, we are absolutely sure that we will be able to make them stop it. We must make every possible
effort to bring it to a halt.
As for our prediction that guerrilla warfare can be greatly developed in the
enemy's rear, and that base areas can be established, this has already been proved,
and will be proved even more in the future. At the same time, we also pointed out
that the guerrilla war would not all be smooth sailing. We must see that the enemy
is sure to turn around and attack, and at that time guerrilla war will be even more
difficult. We must be prepared for the arrival of this difficulty and strike back at it
from a fighting posture. We must be prepared for this, for only thus can we avoid
the misfortune of "unpreparedness."
We say that the Anti-Japanese National United Front will develop, but there
will be some difficulties. The Guomindang is making progress, but in this progressive stream there is a countercurrent. What has been proved in the past three months?
The diehard element Wang Jingwei has become the Chinese traitor Wang Jingwei,
and naturally he may still make trouble in the future. The Guomindang has deprived Wang Jingwei of his party membership forever, and this is good. All the
generals at the front in different places, Chen Cheng, Li Zongren, Bai Chongxi,
and our Commander-in-chief and Vice Commander-in-chief Zhu [De] and Peng
[Dehuai] have all telegraphed the National Government to issue a wanted circular,
but an open circular has not yet been issued. We think that this wanted circular is
necessary, for he has already become a Chinese traitor and mingled with the enemy. Even though it is not certain that we will be able to catch him now, when the
time comes that the Japanese imperialists are defeated, where on earth can he
escape to? Some people say that he will go to Germany or Italy, but at the time
when the doom of all these world fascists is at hand, where else can he flee? In
sum, so long as he is still on earth, we are sure to catch him in the end.
We say that in the overall forward movement of progress there will be some
partial setbacks, and because of these setbacks, there will be friction. Not only will
there be friction, but it will be somewhat worse than in the past. The force behind
these setbacks can be further divided into two factions. One faction is pro-Japanese,
anti-Chiang, and anti-Communist, and Wang Jingwei is its head. Now some of
them have gone, but there are still some adherents left. The other group is the diehard elements, who advocate so-called resistance against Japan, support of Chiang,
and opposition to the Communists. There are many people of this kind around the
border region. They say: At present, we should first oppose the Communists, and
then resist the Japanese; when the enemy comes, we will resist the Japanese first
and then oppose the Communists. At the front, it is said that there are some people
who advocate the so-called parallel progress of resistance against Japan and oppo-

sition against the Communists. As regards the group which is pro-Japanese and
opposed to Chiang and the Communists, the following concrete examples illustrate
the "carrying out" of their "views." At the second meeting of the People's Political
Council, some draft resolutions with anti-Chiang contents were proposed. They
claimed that the big fire in Changsha had something to do with Chairman Chiang,
using this to criticize Chairman Chiang. They denounced guerrilla war as [the action of] roving bandits, criticizing both Chairman Chiang and the Communist Party,
since Chairman Chiang as well as the Communist Party has suggested that in the
protracted War of Resistance, it is necessary to develop guerrilla warfare. There are
also those, such as Zhang Junmai, who have responded to Wang Jingwei by writing articles saying how bad the Communist Party is! Why the Eighth Route Army
and the New Fourth Army should be done away with! The Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia
Border Region is thus and so! In sum, they are applying their most vicious insults to
the Communist Party as well as to the armies, administration, and people under its
leadership. As for [Wang Jingwei's] being pro-Japanese, before he fled, though he
did not say things clearly, in his articles and speeches there was always a hidden
message of unwillingness to resist Japan and the idea of seeking a compromise with
the Japanese. The other group, in Xi'an as well as in places near the border region,
is carrying on its work, which is welcomed by the enemy, even more assiduously
than before. They are a bunch of hooligans who make a living out of creating friction without paying attention to the overall situation.
This countercurrent is retrogressive. Within the camp of the united front there is
progress as well as retrogression, but if a fight takes place between two persons,
one progressive and the other backward, who will win? Our answer is that the
progressive tendency can overcome the retrogressive tendency.
We must understand that within the united front there is sure to be friction. The
name of the united front itself contains the idea of friction, for when talking about
unification, it is possible only if there are two or more. If there is only one, "one
hand does not clap," and there can be no friction, but if there are two, two hands
will clap and make a loud noise, and friction will be unavoidable. If the united
front lasts for ten thousand years, friction will also last for ten thousand years. So
long as there is the united front, friction will exist, because when there are differences, there will be friction. But we are doing our best to reduce friction.
Some people are determined to create friction. If so, what should we do then?
At the Sixth Plenum we said that we would never tolerate unreasonable friction.
We must adhere to the principle: "We will not attack unless we are attacked; if we

2. Zhang Jiasen (1887-1969), zi Junmai, commonly known in the West as Carson Chang,
a native of Jiangsu, studied in Tokyo and subsequently in Germany and England. For many
years he was closely associated with Liang Qichao, and not on good terms with the
Guomindang. In 1937, however, after the outbreak of the anti-Japanese war, he accepted a
post in Nanjing, while advocating his own brand of state socialism. In 1939 he followed the
government to Chongqing.


are attacked, we will certainly retaliate." This last principle is very important. For
instance, I am standing in this room, and he pushes me. If I yield to him and back
off one step, then he will push me back one step after the other until I have no place
to stand in this room. Therefore, if he pushes, we will push back, until we have
pushed him back to where he came from. If they want to create friction, we will
oppose friction. They say that the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Border Region Government is a puppet régime, they want to abolish the Shanxi-Chahar-Hebei Border
Region and the Communist Party as well, they want the Eighth Route Army and
the New Fourth Army to go to the desert area, and so on and so on. They have a
great many variants like this, and we oppose all of them. They are creating a lot of
friction around the periphery of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Border Region. Take
the occupation of villages, for example. If they take one village, we should take
two of theirs. If they return one of ours, we should return the same number. If they
take captives, and take two of our men, we will take four of theirs. If they lock ours
up for three days, we will lock theirs up for six days before releasing them. Why
should we treat them more severely than they treat us? This is because they attacked us first, justice is not on their side, and they must be punished. This is what
is called opposing friction. We must love each other and unite, but we should stand
up; otherwise, we will suffer the "pain of losing our Party." At present, with the
increase in friction, what is the future of the united front? We will definitely persevere in the Anti-Japanese National United Front. It can also be maintained during
the anti-Japanese war, as has already been made clear in the report at the Sixth
Plenum. Love and unity are the principles of the united front. Nonetheless, we
must also insist on the principle of opposing friction; it is impossible without this
point. Only by maintaining this principle can we strengthen and expand the Anti-Japanese National United Front.
Now the Guomindang is holding its Fifth Plenum. We do not anticipate that the
result will be bad, but at the same time we should not ignore the fact that friction is
still possible.
Above I have talked about the situation on the Chinese side. I will now discuss
the situation on the Japanese side.
Japan has changed its prime minister, because it now wants to use a new method,
namely, the general mobilization of the whole country. This proves that at the
present time its old methods are inadequate, and its difficulties have become more
apparent. On the other hand, it also demonstrates that in the future it will attack
China even more frenziedly, and that it is preparing to attack the entire world. It is
in the situation [characterized by the saying] "when riding a tiger the hard part is
getting off' and has no alternative to launching a general mobilization of the whole
country.
As for Japan's difficulties, in military terms they manifest themselves in the
lack of troops and dispersion of troops. The economy is even more exhausted.
Fewer commodities are now exported, because military industry has expanded.
Conversely, imports are greater than in the past, because of the need to make large
quantities of military supplies. In the past Japanese products were the cheapest
(because it exploited most severely the great mass of workers and peasants), and
they could be used to exchange for some foreign products. Now that this condition
no longer exists, it has to use cash if it wants to buy raw materials from foreign
countries, but Japan does not have large cash reserves. Moreover, in the more than
one year's war of invasion against China, it has spent nearly 9 billion yen in military expenses. Diplomatically, it is becoming more and more isolated. Britain, the
United States, and France have already sent protests to Japan, asking why it violated the Nine-Power Treaty.3 This happened after the fall of Wuhan and
Guangzhou. Now Britain and the United States are discussing the use of economic
sanctions to punish Japan. In the past America had a neutrality law, which was
disadvantageous to China but advantageous to Japan. Now the relationship between Japan and the United States is not good, because Japan wants everything for
itself, and the interests of Britain and the United States in China are weakened. At
the same time, because Britain and the United States are separated from China by
large oceans, additional shipping fees are added to their products, the prices of
their products are higher than those from Japan, and they are unable to compete
against the Japanese. Furthermore, using as its excuse the military implications,
Japan does not allow British and American merchant ships to navigate the Yangzi
and other rivers, and the commercial interests of Britain and the United States in
China have been almost completely taken over. Now Japan is talking in fine words
about returning the leased territories,4 but in reality it wants to change the leased
territories of Britain and France into its own occupied territories. In addition, it is
attempting to attack Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Australia, and other such places.
Japanese imperialism has become "a rat running across the street, with everyone
shouting 'kill it'." Its only friends are Hitler and Mussolini. All the democratic
countries, such as Britain, the United States, and France, dislike it, let alone the
Soviet Union.
Last October we said that Japan had not stopped its attack, but it undoubtedly
would. Moreover, we pointed out the three conditions that would make it stop, of
which the aforementioned difficulties of Japan constitute one.

3. The Nine-Power Treaty, adopted at the Washington Conference of 1922, contained
stipulations regarding the Open Door and equal opportunity in China.
4. Beginning in 1898, in the aftermath of the Boxer Uprising, foreign powers demanded
and obtained from China so-called "leased territories," which were excluded from Chinese
sovereignty for terms often as long as ninety-nine years. The territory in Northeast China
thus granted to Russia was for the most part handed over to Japan following the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, and Germany's territory in Shandong was likewise taken over by
Japan, though it was returned to China in 1922. In 1939, there thus remained only three
such territories: a large area controlled by Japan in Manchuria; the "New Territories" opposite Hong Kong under British rule; and the post of Guangzhouwan, opposite Hainan Island,
under French control.


What, then, is the international attitude toward us? In the past we pointed out
that the problem in Europe differs somewhat from the problem in Asia. In the past
Britain and France made one concession after another to Hitler in Europe, but
adopted in some respects a different attitude toward China. This has already been
demonstrated. It is good that Britain and France lend money to us; this opens one
door, and in the future we will have more ways out. Nevertheless, will they help us
greatly? That can't happen. There are limitations in the imperialist countries. Naturally we are not relying on the international environment to eat; we must put the
main emphasis on China.

There are two kinds of countries in the world. One is the fascist countries, the
other is the democratic countries. The contradictions between these two kinds of
countries are daily becoming more acute. Now that the Spanish government army
has become more dangerous, Germany wants to take back its old colonies, and
Italy is scheming to take Tunisia and other places belonging to France. A war crisis
among the big powers has drawn closer. Now a world war has already begun. The
wars that have taken place in the past, and are taking place today, are wars in which
the fascist countries are attacking the weak and small countries. In the future they
will fight against big countries, but when that will happen we do not yet know. Do
we, however, wish that it would take place as soon as possible, or what? If it were
to begin now, that would certainly be a good thing in some respects. For example,
a blow against the fascists in the West would weaken the power of Japan. But this
is indirect, and thus it would be better if the attack came later, for in that case,
Britain, the United States, and the other democratic countries would be able to
help us more directly. The Soviet Union is not willing to fight now either. In a few
years, when it has completed its third five-year plan and has become stronger, so
that the mere mention of its name will scare the fascists to death, this will be more
beneficial to China as well as to the world. The world is sure to fight a larger-scale
war, but there is no way to predict when that war will break out.
Such is the present aspect of the war and the political situation.