On May 18, 1941, those who estimate the movements of Japanese imperialism often proceed solely from the subjective needs of the pro-American, radical faction within Japan—that is, the fascist faction—while forgetting the objective factors that exist and primarily determine Japan’s movements. After the Tripartite Pact, members of the Kuomintang held this view, and so did others. Currently, there are three main features in the international situation: first, Germany’s great victories; second, China’s developing War of Resistance Against Japan; and third, the Soviet Union’s policy of peace. In assessing international issues generally, and Japanese issues specifically, we must not ignore these three features. Those who turn a blind eye to these three major features or underestimate their importance will inevitably draw incorrect or not entirely correct conclusions.

German imperialism has conquered all of Europe except the Soviet Union, is advancing toward Africa and the Near East, continues large-scale bombing of the British Isles, and is expanding its submarine warfare in the Atlantic. This indicates that German imperialism has a tendency to seize world hegemony. Britain and the United States, competing with it for this hegemony, cannot but rise up and fight desperately. The rapid preparations of the United States to enter the war are a result of this situation. Under these circumstances, the imperialist plan of Britain and the United States is to concentrate their forces against Germany. They estimate that as long as the British Isles hold firm, they can use their maritime superiority and regain air supremacy, forcing Hitler’s fire to burn eastward, causing friction with the Soviet Union. If all goes as they hope, one day they might stir up the anti-Soviet faction within Germany, triggering a German-Soviet war, and then their "plan" would be "successful." To prevent Hitler from moving west, to keep the Soviet Union from staying out of the fray, and to stage another European Munich—this is their general policy. In the Far East, they aim to exploit the internal contradictions within the Tripartite Pact, dismantle the Tokyo-Berlin axis, bribe Japan, draw Japan into their own embrace, and once again implement a Far Eastern Munich, using Sino-Japanese and Soviet-Japanese contradictions to push Japan westward and northward, coordinating with their Western policy of pushing Germany eastward. All this constitutes the "cunning schemes" of the British and American imperialists. The more Germany triumphs, the more it drives the gentlemen of Britain and the United States to rack their brains searching for Germany’s weaknesses and Japan’s weaknesses, and every scheme of theirs seeks to shift the burden onto the Soviet Union. Whenever crises arise for the gentlemen of Britain and the United States, they always try to find a way out by making schemes involving the Soviet Union. This is a rule they have long devised.

As for Japan, Germany’s victories encourage the entire Japanese ruling class to seize opportunities for gain, because they draw Britain’s and America’s energies increasingly toward the Atlantic rather than the Pacific. On this issue, the three factions within Japan’s rulers—the pro-Italian fascist faction, the pro-British-American status quo faction, and the middle faction between the two—though each seeks to exploit every unfavorable turn in the international situation for the opposing side in the struggle for power, are united in one point: exploiting Western contradictions (British-German, American-German, Soviet-German contradictions) to achieve Japan’s expansionist goals. They can unify, for they believe it is more advantageous to let Hitler bear the heavy burden of Britain and the United States, let Hitler divert the Soviet Union’s attention to the West, watch the tigers fight from the mountain, and then seize the opportunity for great gains. In the Tripartite Pact, Japan, unlike Italy, which acts entirely as Hitler’s vassal, possesses a semi-independent character. Japan cannot obey orders that align with Hitler’s wishes but contradict Japan’s own, such as the immediate outbreak of a Pacific war. Japan’s war against China, its national strength, and the contradictions within its ruling class do not permit it to do so. This situation has produced, in recent months, especially in the last week, various comedic scenes of mutual courtship between Japan and Britain and the United States. These comedies can only be explained by the fact that both Britain and the United States, on one hand, and Japan, on the other, want to temporarily (not permanently) avoid a Pacific war. The only difference is that one side focuses on confronting Germany, while the other focuses on confronting China and watching the tigers fight in the West to seize future opportunities for gain. But for certain ruling figures in the Chinese Kuomintang, this is a splash of cold water, because since the Tripartite Pact, they have been daily hoping for a Japanese-American war to save them. Their Roosevelt is unwilling to heed their pitiful pleas, and Japan’s intentions also run counter to their wishes.

We believe the changes in the international situation surrounding Germany’s victories should be viewed in this way.

As for China’s developing War of Resistance Against Japan, many people underestimate it. Some even feel that Japan can ignore China, press resolutely southward, and start a Japanese-American war. Little do they know that exactly the opposite is true—what fundamentally determines Japan’s movements is precisely China, this towering, increasingly awakened, and increasingly strong China resisting Japan. China today is a great fire of national revolution, with millions holding high the torch, and the Communist Party standing at the forefront of this torch-bearing procession. After occupying Wuhan, Japan’s rulers have, for the past two and a half years, pursued a policy of concentrating on the Communists while relaxing pressure on the Kuomintang to lure them into surrender. But this policy has failed; the Communists have grown stronger the more they are attacked, and the Kuomintang, though tempted to surrender, has not yet done so. What is regrettable is that the ruling figures in our friendly party, instead of using this period to improve governance and strengthen unity, have launched two anti-Communist waves during these two and a half years, copying Japan’s methods by concentrating on opposing the Communists and relaxing opposition to Japan. Their implication seems to be: "Since we are using full strength to oppose the Communists, you Japanese can feel free to go to war with America and need not attack us further." But Japanese imperialism does not heed such words; it wants the whole of China. It not only wants to "oppose the Communists" but also to "destroy the party." The Japanese say: If you want us not to advance, you must surrender, or a full-scale civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communists must break out. The Southern Anhui Incident alone is not enough. Indeed, after the Southern Anhui Incident, the Japanese spared no effort to provoke a Kuomintang-Communist war. But thanks to the Communist Party Central Committee’s efforts to uphold the overall situation, and to the fact that key Kuomintang leaders were unwilling to fall for Japan’s tricks, Japan’s provocation schemes failed, forcing them to redeploy military forces for risky offensives they did not want. This is the origin of the recently tense war situation. We can assert with certainty: due to Kuomintang-Communist unity and the ever-growing people’s War of Resistance, the flames opposing Japanese imperialism will only burn ever higher. Japanese imperialism will bury itself in the great fire of China. Naturally, this greatly helps Britain and the United States, tying down Japan’s southward advance and facilitating their focus on Germany. But they do not cherish China; they are imperialists who profit at others’ expense. As long as Japan does not start a Pacific war, they are willing to give Japan many things—rubber, oil, cotton, machinery, everything it wants—and even go further by sacrificing China and the Dutch East Indies, which are also in the secret bags of Roosevelt and Churchill. The new danger of a Far Eastern Munich is by no means an entirely impossible and overly sensitive talk. However, as long as China holds its ground and perseveres, even as Japan’s banners turn west, our torches will spread eastward in great heaps. By waging a great decisive struggle, there is every way to defeat Japan. Great China is entangling Japan, forcing it only to temporarily avoid a Pacific war. What fundamentally determines Japan’s movements is China, just as what fundamentally determines China’s movements is Japan—these are two sides of the same coin.

Speaking of the Soviet Union’s peace policy, it can be said that it is the brake on the entire world, and its strength will overcome all the schemes of imperialist reactionaries. Whether it is the British and American fantasy of Hitler’s fire burning eastward or any other anti-Soviet plot, one day they will all be seen as a pile of shattered junk. Hess’s flight proves that the latest major scheme of Britain and the United States has failed again, that a new understanding between Germany and the Soviet Union has been established, and that the new European Munich danger has been broken once more—this is Stalin’s victory in summoning the "east wind." So it is in the West, and so it is likewise in the East. Even if Britain and the United States concoct some new Far Eastern Munich and mobilize all their disciples and sympathizers in Japan and China, it will be useless—Sun Wukong cannot leap out of the palm of the Buddha. It is also impossible for Britain and the United States to sabotage the War of Resistance; China’s torch of resistance has Stalin to fuel it, and that fueling is reliable. If Japanese imperialism rashly charges and blunders toward the western borders of China, it will surely be battered and bruised, because China not only has an unbroken Kuomintang-Communist cooperation but also an ever-growing Sino-Soviet cooperation. Turning a blind eye to or underestimating the Soviet Union’s peace policy is definitively incorrect.

Will Japan then not advance southward? It will. But at present, its first priority is to go west; it vainly hopes to resolve the China issue first. It wants to use the current moment to let Hitler strike hard at Britain and the United States while it strikes hard at China. It attempts to cut off China’s northwestern and southwestern communication routes and open the Pinghan Railway. After a fierce assault, it will surely follow with a soft offensive, mobilizing its fifth column (such as He Yingqin) to engage in extensive pulling and luring to achieve the goal of inducing surrender. Striking and pulling are still Japan’s two great magic weapons. Estimating that at some point, another surrender crisis might arise, we should now be vigilant. Japan’s wishful calculation probably goes like this: within a not too long period, resolve or largely resolve the China issue, wait until Britain and the United States are even less able to attend to the East, and then either you readily hand over the Pacific to me, or I will take up arms against you—in any case, by that time, I will have my "wish." All the subjective calculations of imperialists must never be regarded as outcomes; between their subjective calculations and the final results, the outcome is either fundamentally opposite or vastly different. The same should be viewed regarding Japanese imperialism’s calculations. They want to "resolve us first" again—let them try again. How many times have their so-called "plans" for China failed? Let them fail again. This is entirely possible, for all reactionaries in the world are incapable of gauging the development of revolutionary forces—this is the fatal flaw destined for reactionaries. Whose world is it, after all? The imperialist robbers say it is certainly theirs, but the people say it is certainly the people’s world. Whose China is it? Japanese imperialism says it is certainly its China, but we say it is certainly the Chinese people’s China. "Behold today’s domain—whose realm is it, after all?" Only the people, only we, can correctly answer this question. Yes, the correct answer will only come from the people, only from us, and absolutely not from the enemy, not from them. Let the people of the entire nation unite to oppose Japanese imperialism’s attack—we have every confidence in victory. III 〇 〇 II.
Reference Materials for the History of the Chinese Communist Party, Volume IV.