Judgment of the Situation of the Japanese Army’s Offensive and Suggestions for Our Disposition[1]

(December 30, 1937)

Chen, Zhou, Xiang, Bo, Ye:

A. It is judged that after the enemy occupies Jinan, Xuzhou, and Bengbu, or perhaps further occupies Zhengzhou and Kaifeng, thus completing the first-phase operational tasks, the objective of its second-phase operations will be to occupy the three points of Lanzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuhan and link them up with one another. However, in order to cut off China’s external communications at an early date and thereby strangle China, it seems that the enemy will first occupy Lanzhou and Guangzhou and leave the occupation of Wuhan for a somewhat later stage. It will be very difficult for the enemy to occupy Lanzhou directly from Ningxia, and its line of advance seems to be: first, to occupy Ningxia—according to reliable information, it has already prepared a force of 30,000 for the offensive; second, to divide its forces into two routes, one attacking Liangzhou in the west and the other attacking Pingliang in the south, thereby cutting off the two highways to Xinjiang and Lanzhou; third, to occupy Lanzhou. By that time, the enemy will certainly have occupied Zhengzhou on the front and may even have cut off Tongguan. This danger is already imminent, and Jiang and we must make dispositions quickly; otherwise, it will be too late.

B. Please propose the following dispositions to Jiang:

(1) Of the three main-force divisions of the Eighth Route Army, one division should be sent to Ganzhou and Liangzhou[2]; this division must be dispatched immediately. One division should be sent to the Guyuan area; this division must also be prepared for dispatch. One division should be sent to western Henan; this division is to be dispatched when the enemy attacks Zhengzhou and Tongguan. The three divisions should each leave one regiment in Shandong and Shanxi to coordinate with the guerrilla forces and persist in

[1] This was a telegram from Mao Zedong and Luo Fu (Zhang Wentian), Kang Sheng, and Chen Yun, members of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, to Chen Shaoyu (Wang Ming), Zhou Enlai, Xiang Ying, Bo Gu (Qin Bangxian), and Ye Jianying, members of the CPC Central Committee delegation then negotiating with the Kuomintang in Wuhan.

[2] Ganzhou and Liangzhou were old prefectural names, referring to present-day Zhangye and Wuwei in Gansu Province.

guerrilla warfare in northern China.

(2) The Central Army should send two divisions to reinforce the defense south of Ningxia.

(3) Xinjiang should send a part of its forces to reinforce the defense of Xi’an and Lanzhou. We await your reply as to how this is to be done.

Luo, Kang, Chen, Mao

December 30