•Will China ever achieve unity?
Apart from a handful of deluded individuals like Zhang Shaoceng, everyone knows that such unity is impossible in the foreseeable future.
This is because the various factions within the country currently lack any viable means of reconciliation.
Unity, after all, does not equate to mere amalgamation; therefore, initiatives such as “provincial conferences,” “national consultative councils,” or even sending delegates to negotiate with factional leaders are nothing more than empty rhetoric.
A closer examination reveals three principal camps: the revolutionary democratic faction, the non-revolutionary democratic faction, and the reactionary camp.
At the core of the revolutionary democratic faction stands the Kuomintang, with the emerging Communist Party collaborating closely with it.
The non-revolutionary democratic faction was formerly represented by the Progressive Party, which has since dissolved.
Today, its direct successor is the Research Group.
Intellectual figures like Hu Shi and Huang Yanpei, along with merchant elites such as Nie Yuntai and Mu Ou Chu, also belong to this camp.
The reactionary camp, however, constitutes the broadest spectrum, encompassing the Zhili, Fengtian, and Anhui cliques. (Although the Fengtian and Anhui factions currently cooperate with the Kuomintang, this alliance is unlikely to endure; ultimately, they remain staunchly reactionary forces.)
Among these three factions, the first two are destined to collaborate in due course.
As the reactionary forces grow increasingly powerful, both the Research Group and the merchant faction will temporarily set aside their non-revolutionary agendas to align themselves with the revolutionary Kuomintang, much as the Communists once set aside their most radical positions to join forces with the relatively moderate Kuomintang.
Consequently, China’s political landscape will evolve into the following configuration: on one side, the ultra-radical Communists, together with the more moderate Research Group and merchant elements, will unite against a common adversary—the Kuomintang—in order to establish a large-scale democratic front; on the other side will stand the reactionary warlord clique.
The ultimate outcome will be the triumph of democracy over militarism.
However, for the foreseeable future, China will undoubtedly remain under the sway of warlords••leading to darker politics, greater fiscal chaos, a swelling military presence, stagnation in industrial education, intensifying oppression of the populace, and, in essence, a complete erosion of any semblance of democratic governance.
Such a period could last anywhere from ten to twenty years.
How can we be so certain?
Consider the profoundly reactionary nature of international capitalist imperialism.
They are currently coordinating their efforts to invade China.
Previously, their actions lacked coherence, but following deliberations at the Washington Conference, they managed to synchronize their strategies.
Although this coordination is ultimately bound to unravel, for the time being and in the near term, they are determined to consolidate their gains from the previous war and prepare for the next conflict through a policy of coordinated aggression.
The fact that the United States’ Open Door Policy was successfully enforced despite the presence of British, French, and Japanese spheres of influence within China serves as clear evidence of this reality.
From the perspective of international capital, China’s fragmentation poses a disadvantage•. Yet, compared to the chaotic scenario of a divided nation dominated by both democratic and militaristic forces, complete subjugation under reactionary rule would actually prove far more advantageous to imperialist interests.
This constitutes the primary reason why China will continue to be ruled by reactionary warlords in the immediate and near future.
From a socio-economic standpoint, China today finds itself uniquely suited to warlord domination.
Bands of marauding brigands, often comprising tens of thousands of men, can easily roam across Henan province and disrupt several neighboring regions.
Over ninety percent of the population remains illiterate.
With the exception of a few modest commercial centers along rivers, coasts, and railways, the vast majority of the country continues to rely on an agrarian economy.
Organizational structures outside these coastal and riverine areas are exceedingly weak, consisting primarily of family-based rural handicraft enterprises.
Groups such as merchants, teachers, and students exist only in limited numbers along key transportation routes.
Meanwhile, regions like Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Guangxi still lack any railway connections whatsoever.
Nationwide, there is not a single political party boasting thirty thousand verified members, nor a single newspaper with circulation exceeding two hundred thousand copies, nor a single magazine reaching even twenty thousand readers.
And yet, China’s total population numbers forty million, spread across more than thirty million square miles of land.
Under such socio-economic conditions, if not the warlords, then who else could possibly assume control?
This, too, underscores why China will remain under warlord rule for the foreseeable future.
Based on both domestic and international political and economic circumstances, we can confidently conclude that China will, in the immediate and near future, remain firmly entrenched in a reactionary, warlord-dominated order.
During this period, external powers and local warlords will collude to perpetuate a highly reactionary and chaotic political environment.
However, the more repressive and disorderly the regime becomes, the more likely it is to ignite revolutionary sentiments among the populace, gradually strengthening their capacity for collective organization.
Although the southwestern provinces will never unify with the north—despite harboring smaller warlord factions—they will nonetheless serve as sanctuaries for revolutionary elements.
Over time, the ranks of the democratic camp will steadily expand, and their organizational strength will continue to grow.
Eventually, democracy will prevail over militarism, marking the completion of China’s independent democratic political system.
We must recognize that the present era is one of turmoil, not peace and unity.
Politics will only become more reactionary and chaotic•. Nevertheless, this very turbulence represents the genesis of peaceful reunification—it is the mother of revolution and the sacred elixir of democratic independence—and it is crucial that we all understand this truth.
O