1. 
[23 February 1921] 
[11... I draw your attention to the fact that each of the authors, in presenting their personal viewpoint and individual approach to the issue, ultimately comes close to the others: there is a danger, its economic assessment is a significant increase in production costs; the moment of the crisis's onset cannot be precisely determined; the benefit of involving a concessionaire is questionable. 
==z^==zIt is characteristic that in this last point, not only those imbued with a lively sympathy for the new construction, such as I. M. Gubkin, but also people from another political camp, who are knowledgeable and conscientious about the matter, converge...

[21... Even if a concessionaire were found who expressed readiness to take on the obligations for simultaneous work on oil extraction and combating flooding, as mentioned above, we would be powerless at the time of concluding the contract to foresee and stipulate all the necessary conditions. 
A rational regime for the field is not constant and requires continuous adjustments. All our knowledge about the state of wells, referring to the pre-revolutionary period (now we know only a quarter of the wells), is currently outdated and insufficient for ongoing work, let alone for 20-30 years ahead, which is the term concessionaires wish to conclude the contract...

[3]... Of course, it is impossible to resolve this [task. Ed.] with the insignificant means currently available to the fields, but I assert that there is nothing here beyond our capabilities...

[4]... The last two facilities are more urgently needed by us than the fight against water. A crisis is looming over the fields, but it is not yet here today, while we are already suffocating from a lack of fuel, and there is no hope of improving the situation without building an oil pipeline, which, in turn, cannot be fully utilized without deparaffinization of Grozny mazut.

The report is dated 10 February 1921.

# ПОМЕТКИ НА ДОКЛАДЕ И. М. ГУБКИНА «О ПОЛОЖЕНИИ ДЕЛА В НЕФТЕНОСНЫХ РАЙОНАХ РЕСПУБЛИКИ»

1. 
[23 February 1921] 
[1]... Without closing our eyes to the situation, it was definitively established that the oil industry is facing a mortal danger, and to hush it up would be a crime. At the congress of administrative and technical figures in the mining industry, in the report of Glavneft, this was stated quite clearly. It was pointed out that the oil industry is on the brink of catastrophe, and an urgent solution must be found from the situation that has arisen. At the recently concluded second congress of the All-Russian Union of Miners, this same issue was raised again. Here, too, the catastrophic situation of the oil fields was noted.

[2]... Now, the question has been put to the Sovnarkom and the Central Committee of the party: is the oil industry indeed facing a catastrophic collapse, and when might this catastrophe occur? A clear answer can be given to this question: there is no full-blown catastrophe yet, but the state of affairs in the oil-producing regions is such that the oil industry faces inevitable destruction if a series of urgent measures are not taken to prevent the impending disaster.

Indeed, in the Baku region, currently about 960 wells are in operation instead of 3500, which were operated in normal times, for example in 1913. In the Grozny region, only 100 wells are in operation, compared to 350-360 wells in 1913. In the Ural-Emba region, only 10-11 wells were in operation during the summer of the past year, with the rest idle. The core of the issue is that the large number of idle wells threatens the regions with flooding...

[3]... If the wells are idle, not only is no oil produced, but a huge amount of water remains in them. This water, being heavier than oil, pushes the latter away from the well bottom and enters the oil layers, displacing the oil... Any drilling for oil in a explored area where the depth of the oil and water layers is known carries a significant risk—creating a situation in which the fulfillment of production targets for oil extraction becomes difficult... Consequently, the cessation of the operation of drilled wells threatens the field with flooding and such damage that it will almost amount to complete destruction... Therefore, the first primary task of a combat nature... is to bring the number of wells in Baku to 3500, in Grozny to 350, and in Emba to 90...

[4]... If drilling activity in the oil-producing regions is not increased, production will fall to unprecedented levels in the very near future, and after the accumulated oil reserves are exhausted, which will happen in the next two years, the republic will find itself without liquid fuel, even under the condition of complete control over the oil-producing regions. Such are the consequences of stopping drilling activity. As for the unprecedented reduction in operational activity, this is a Lenin Miscellany XX