The outline of an article titled "Balance of Forces" printed below was written on Monday, October 30 (November 17), 1905, in the afternoon, when telegrams about the "Manifesto of October 17" had not yet reached Geneva. In point 5 of the outline it still says: "A rumor that a constitution has been decided upon."

The article "Balance of Forces" was intended, as is evident from the draft table of contents for No. 24 of *Proletariat* sketched by Vladimir Ilyich on the same sheet, as the lead article of this issue.

But late Monday evening "the telegraph brought Europe news of the tsar's manifesto," Vladimir Ilyich says in the article "The First Victory of the Revolution." (*Works*, vol. VIII, p. 352.) The article "The First Victory of the Revolution," written on November 4 (October 22), replaced the intended article.

## 30.

## BALANCE OF FORCES.

[October 30, 1905, afternoon.]

1) The balance sheet so far (October 30/17, Monday) — balance of forces, as we have already indicated in No. 23 of *Proletariat*.

2) Tsarism is no longer able — the Revolution is not yet able to win!*)

3) Hence enormous vacillations. A terrifying, gigantic intensification of revolutionary phenomena (strikes, mass meetings, barricades, committees of public safety, complete paralysis of government power, etc.) — on the other side, the absence of decisive repression. The troops waver.

4) The Court wavers (Times and Daily Telegraph): dictatorship or constitution? 

The Court wavers and bides its time. Properly speaking, this is the correct tactic on its part: the balance of forces compels waiting, and **power remains in their hands**.

The Revolution has reached a point where counter-revolution has no advantage in attacking, in advancing.

For us, for the proletariat, for consistent revolutionary democrats, this is not yet enough. If we do not rise one step higher, if we do not accomplish the task of independent offensive action, if we do not break the forces of tsarism, do not destroy its actual power, — then the revolution will be half-hearted, then the bourgeoisie will lead the workers by the nose.

5) A rumor that a constitution has been decided upon. If so, then the tsar is taking into account the lessons of 1848 and other revolutions: without a Constituent Assembly, prior to a Constituent Assembly, apart from a Constituent Assembly, to grant a constitution. What kind? In the best case (for the tsar) = a Cadet one.

The significance of this: the realization of the ideal of constitutional democrats, a leap over the revolution. A deception of the people, because there will still be no full and real freedom of elections.

Will the revolution not leap over this granted constitution?

No. 24 [Balance of Forces]?
Petty-bourgeois and proletarian socialism
School pedagogy
Parliamentarism
Feuilleton??
Foreign Review:
France
Germany*)

*) From the article "All-Russian Political Strike." (*Works*, vol. VIII, p. 333.)

2) Draft table of contents for No. 24 of *Proletariat*. In fact, No. 24 appeared with somewhat different contents. The article "Balance of Forces" was replaced by an article by Lenin himself, "The First Victory of the Revolution."

An article on school pedagogy did not appear in *Proletariat*. Although the manuscript of the article has been preserved (in the archives of the Lenin Institute), it was not possible to establish the authorship.

A. Lunacharsky's article "Parliament and Its Significance" was printed not in No. 24, but in No. 25 of *Proletariat*.